Discussion about 93L

[cycloneye]

This is from the 2:05 Discussion:

Tropical wave located about 540 nm E of Barbados along 50w/51w S
of 16n moving W 20-25 kt...with a 1014 mb low centered along the
axis near 11n. The center of the low is elongated and qscat had
a hard time closing off a well-defined circulation this morning.
However...the pressures reported from a few ships in the area
are slightly lower than adjacent land pressures and so at least
a pressure minimum is possible. Convection has consolidated to
the N/NW of the low since yesterday with scattered moderate from
12n-14.5n between 49w-56w. Widely scattered moderate is from
10n-16n between 53w-58w. Heavy showers/tstms will begin to
spread across the Lesser Antilles later this evening and may
continue through Wednesday. Incidentally...surface pressures
over northern S America and the Lesser Antilles are quite high
for this time of year and so tropical cyclone development is not
expected.

For sure plenty of bad weather for portions of the Lesser Antilles but I dont see anything organizing there at the moment.

[Steve H.]

What seemed last week like encouraging signs that the tropics would come to life has been disappointing. Looks like another wait, as the only thing the globals show is a low spawning off the SE coast and heading out to sea (GFS). Globals are showing a low coming off Africa at day 6, but that's about it. Looks like a long week ahead

[abajan]

93L now looks like it's going to dump a whole heap of rain my way!

[Aquawind]

2am TWD...Dang SAL..whata creep..

TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 375 NM E OF BARBADOS ALONG 54W/55W S
OF 16N MOVING W 20-25 KT...WITH A 1014 MB LOW CENTERED ALONG THE
AXIS NEAR 11N. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD AND S LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WAVE/LOW IS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH IS
PRODUCING OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA FROM 10N-16N
BETWEEN 53W-61W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE E CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-18N FROM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES TO
64W.



TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
VERY BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS LOCATED WELL INLAND OVER
AFRICA WITH RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW OFF THE COAST NEAR THE
MAURITANIA/SENEGAL BORDER TO 12N34W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N50W WITH AN EAST/WEST RIDGE AXIS
FROM 40W-62W. THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW IS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THIS FLOW AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY SURFACE AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION ACROSS THE
ATLC FROM 13N-25N BETWEEN 35W-50W. THE LEADING EDGE OF SAHARAN
DUST IS CLEARLY OBSERVED ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF 30N NEAR 64W. THIS IS LIMITING
CONVECTION IN THE OUTER BANDS OF THE TROPICAL WAVE/LOW AS THEY
CROSS INTO THE E CARIBBEAN.