LATEST outlook from the NHC

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WXBUFFJIM
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LATEST outlook from the NHC

#1 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:14 am

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1013 MB LOW HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SURFACE TROF THAT EXTENDS
FROM 20N86W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 25N84W. THIS SYSTEM
IS THE REMNANT OF T.D. TWO AND HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDEVELOPMENT. RADAR IMAGES FROM CANCUN MEXICO CONFIRM THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION WITH ROTATION NOTED IN THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL. SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AS IT
ENTERS THE SE GULF TONIGHT. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 84W-88W.

Definitely it confirms what we've been tracking all evening and throughout the overnight of a counterclockwise rotation over the Yucatan Channel. This has likely potential for development and possibly significant development over the next several days over the Gulf Of Mexico as anticyclone aloft develops and remains in control over this region. This combined with very warm gulf waters makes for a more explosvie development possibly. We'll keep an eye on it.

Jim
Last edited by WXBUFFJIM on Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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wayoutfront

#2 Postby wayoutfront » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:17 am

I posted this on another thread but it seems better here
Image
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WXBUFFJIM
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#3 Postby WXBUFFJIM » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:23 am

That seems to match pretty well with the text description I'm seeing from the hurricane center.

Jim
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#4 Postby Aquawind » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:41 am

FWIW 93L has a TNumber now..

09/0545 UTC 10.2N 57.1W T1.0/1.0 93 -- Atlantic Ocean
09/0545 UTC 21.7N 87.0W T2.0/2.0 02 -- Atlantic Ocean
09/0225 UTC 20.0N 130.2E T3.0/3.0 RANANIM -- West Pacific Ocean
08/2345 UTC 10.2N 55.1W TOO WEAK 93 -- Atlantic Ocean
08/2345 UTC 21.4N 85.1W T1.5/1.5 02 -- Atlantic Ocean

Former TD2 went from too weak to a 2.0 in 24 hours.. :eek:
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Matthew5

#5 Postby Matthew5 » Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:47 am

I would not be at all surprized if this system is so compact that the west wind is with in 50 or so miles from the LLCC/MLCC. I would not be surprized if this has 40 knot maybe higher winds with in close to that center!
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rbaker

#6 Postby rbaker » Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:38 am

as of 0700z this am, system in gom is small, however once away from the Yucatan, things could change.
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#7 Postby nystate » Mon Aug 09, 2004 7:03 am

Yes, but it may now have shear to deal with. From the 8:05 am discussion...

RIDGE AXIS FROM THE MID/UPPER HIGH OVER THE GULF IS CREATING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF SHEAR THIS MORNING OVER THE SPECIAL FEATURE THAT
HAS MOVED INTO THE SE GULF. THIS MAY NOW PRODUCE A LESS
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.
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