Huge problems ahead for Florida from two tropical systems!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

Looking at the tropics this morning reveals two tropical cyclones, both of which are threats to the United States over the next several days with potential significant impacts. One of the biggest impacts with each system will be very heavy rainfall. The southeast and Mid Atlantic states have been water logged over the past couple of weeks and rain from tropical cyclones Bonnie and Charley will only aggreviate the problem. We must remember that most people die in tropical cyclones these days not because of wind or surge, but from inland freshwater flooding from heavy rains. This must be kept in mind as heavy rain amounts of up to 6-12 inches are possible in the Florida Panhandle and southern Georgia with Bonnie as she combines with an approaching cold front. Heavy rains have occurred already this morning just offshore from Pensacola and Destin and Bonnie is not even close to the Panhandle of Florida yet, hence the flood risk is pretty high. Meanwhile Charley expected to be more of a threat to the Florida Peninsula, hence heavy rains could cause flooding in that area also. Daytona Beach saw up to 10 inches of rain last weekend while Flagler saw over a half foot of rain. The combination of this and an approaching tropical cyclone could mean flooding rains given the lower flash flood guidance over the peninsula. Up to 8-12 inches of rain is not impossible from Charley over the Florida Peninsula. Both Bonnie and Charley's remnants could significantly impact the Mid Atlantic Region Friday through Monday with heavy flooding rains a good possibility. Also above normal tides combined with large battering waves and possible storm surge could occur over the west coast of Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Tampa Bay area.

Taking a look at Tropical Storm Bonnie shows some reorganization occurring this morning with deep convection exploding near the center of circulation. At 5 AM EDT, Bonnie was centered near latitude 25.5 north, longitude 90.5 west or about 265 miles SSW of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. Bonnie was moving toward the north at near 5 mph. A track toward the northeast with a faster forward speed is expected during the next 12-24 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Bonnie is expected to strengthen and could become a strong tropical storm during the next day or so. Bonnie's minimum central pressure is now 1001 mb or 29.56 inches. Tropical Storm Bonnie continues to show signs of organization this morning as deep thunderstorms continue to explode near the center of circulation. Bonnie is under a relatively light shear environment and that should last until later this evening. After sunset this evening, southwesterly shear is expected to increase with Bonnie, hence potentially halting the intensification process. In the meantime, the potential is there for strengthening and possibly an outside chance of significant strengthening over the next 12 hours as Bonnie remains over very warm gulf waters and a relatively light shear environment. A tropical storm watch remains in effect along the Florida Panhandle this morning from Alabama/Florida border eastward to the mouth of Suwanee River. But we must monitor this for rapid strengthening potential this morning and into this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Charley continues to show signs of strengthening and could strengthen rather significantly over the next couple of days presenting even bigger problems for the western Caribbean and into the west coast of Florida over the next 2 days. All interests in this region are urged to prepare for this particular storm system and if ordered to evacuate, do so immediately. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning are in effect for Jamaica. A tropical storm warning is in effect for southwest peninsula of Haiti. A hurricane warning is now in effect for the Cayman Islands and finally a hurricane watch is in effect from the Dry Tortugas up to Craig Key in the Florida Keys. There is also evacuations being ordered for the Florida Keys this morning well ahead of this storm system, which is a very good decision on the part of local officials to key folks safe ahead of the storm. If ordered to evacuate, please evacuate for the safety of yourself and others.

Looking at the 5 AM EDT advisory on Tropical Storm Charley shows the center near latitude 16.9 north, longitude 74.7 west. Movement is west northwest at 24 mph and that motion is expected to continue today. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Charley is forecast to become a hurricane later today. Minimum central pressure estimated by satellite is 999 mb or 29.50 inches. Recon hurricane hunter aircraft will fly over this system and be in this system at 8 am edt this morning.

Future intensities show steady strengthening over the next 2-3 days except when Charley is over land briefly. At times, Charley could potentially strengthen rapidly with favorable upper level winds, and very warm sea surface temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90. While the NHC intensity shows 75 knots, it could easily be stronger than that, especially if the track of this storm goes over the western tip of Cuba and then toward northwest Florida. A track to the right of that could potentially mean a somewhat weaker system with cat 1-2 winds likely. However we must remember that upper winds are very favorable for strengthening combined with very warm waters and we need to keep an eye on that. Charley is also a large sized system meaning the impacts will be greater and possibly more damaging along the coast. The big concern is for Florida, not once, but twice in 2 days. We'll keep you updated!! Be safe everyone!!!!!

Jim

[HurricaneGirl]

Holy Crap!! They're both coming right for us!!

[Lowpressure]

:eek: Holy Crap!! They're both coming right for us!!

Not a direct hit for Jacksonville, wrong side of the state. The west coast better stand by. Tampa stands to have a major blow. This could be a big as Opal for the big bend area. Cedar key seems to have bulls eye painted on it.

Jacksonville, I lived there for 25 years, will stand to get a easterly fetch off the water that will aid in high tides and coastal flooding as well as areas like black creek flooding, and a buch of rain. If Charley goes in strong, you will be on the eastern side so watch him closely. Tim Deegan will keep you informed on channel 12. He is pretty good with tropical systems.