All of us all model lovers

#1 Postby **Stormcenter** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:51 pm

It's funny we all live and die by what the models say concerning tropical systems. I just finished reading the 5:00pm EDT NHC discussion on Charly and they are still holding stead fast on the same previous track even though he has not behaved as predicted. Of course their reasoning is based on what the "Models" say. Yeah sure they (models)may turn out to be correct but it would be nice to hear them once say our past experience instead of "what the models" say. What ever happened to good ole experience and knowledge? :roll:

Just my opinion.

#2 Postby **MWatkins** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:53 pm

Stormcenter wrote:It's funny we all live and die by what the models say concerning tropical systems. I just finished reading the 5:00pm EDT NHC discussion on Charly and they are still holding stead fast on the same previous track even though he has not behaved as predicted. Of course their reasoning is based on what the "Models" say. Yeah sure they (models)may turn out to be correct but it would be nice to hear them once say our past experience instead of "what the models" say. What ever happened to good ole experience and knowledge? Just my opinion.

Actually...I'm looking at a map with the 11AM forecast plots on it...and I just stuck a pin in at 17 77.5...it is exactly on track and right in the middle of the the initial and 9 hour forecast positions. Right now at least...Charles is behaving quite well.

MW

NorthGaWeather · #3 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 3:58 pm

Charley must have jumped North because he was some 50miles South of track earlier and continues a just north of West motion.

NorthGaWeather · #4 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 4:03 pm

At 11 pm Charley, according to the 11 am advisory, was suppose to be at 17.9 N 78.4 W....At 5 Pm Charley was at 17.0 N and 77.5 W. I'd say its staying further South and is getting much further West. By 11 PM it could be around 17.3 N and 80.0 W.

Stormsfury · #5 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 4:04 pm

Speaking of model guidance ... I just FELL OUT OF MY CHAIR ROTFLMAO when I saw the UKMET's 12z run ... Um, now really, Bonnie waiting for Charley to catch up and the two combine? ... I THINK NOT ...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

#6 Postby **CaptinCrunch** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 4:09 pm

Bonnie will be visiting Tampa Bay by tomorrow afternoon, Charley has a strick zone from Houston to Panama City.

As i see it

#7 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 4:14 pm

MWatkins wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:It's funny we all live and die by what the models say concerning tropical systems. I just finished reading the 5:00pm EDT NHC discussion on Charly and they are still holding stead fast on the same previous track even though he has not behaved as predicted. Of course their reasoning is based on what the "Models" say. Yeah sure they (models)may turn out to be correct but it would be nice to hear them once say our past experience instead of "what the models" say. What ever happened to good ole experience and knowledge? Just my opinion.

Actually...I'm looking at a map with the 11AM forecast plots on it...and I just stuck a pin in at 17 77.5...it is exactly on track and right in the middle of the the initial and 9 hour forecast positions. Right now at least...Charles is behaving quite well.

MW

\

Mike is exactly correct. Was going to post the same thing but just got home and he beat me to it. Just because we had this W wobble earlier doesn't mean its off course. Remember folks, hurricanes don't travel on straight lines. You have to smooth the track out over time. We have seen this over and over and over. Tonight it could start heading 300 and that won;t mean its a sofla hit. NHC so far has nailed it and they have been consistent with the track now for 24 hours. We are 36-48 hours out and they rarely miss it this close in. Now they might be off by 100 miles or so but this is weather. THey are on this thing. Intensity is a different thing but they are on this track.

Aquawind · #8 Postby **Aquawind** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 4:17 pm

NHC is very good at interpreting the data and they are excellent at forcasting path often..They don't just look at the Sattelite loop and decide it's time to change the forecast without other data to support it..They don't let one piece of data sway the data combined..at least not instantly..So far they have done a great job with Bonnie and Charley. Alex..well they had a booth at CrowFest and all of us had a nibble at least..

Watching a Blob of convection...even a eye with in a Sattelite loop can be deceiving..seen it many many times..Don't get suckered by the Loops alone..Recon is a beautiful thing..I have seen people including myself swear it was not going as forecasted and wahlah..it verified to a T.. :wink:

NorthGaWeather · #9 Postby **NorthGaWeather** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 4:33 pm

Charley has been staying 50-100 miles south of the NHC's forecasted track. Which can make a big difference on where it goes. At 5 am NHC forecast this thing to be at 18.1 N 77.3 West by 5 pm today. They have nailed the longitude but are still curving this thing to early. At 5 am tommorrow morning the NHC has this at 18.3 N and 79.5 W and unless Charley begins a NW motion right now its gonna be south and west of the NHC track.

#10 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 4:35 pm

Stormsfury wrote:Speaking of model guidance ... I just FELL OUT OF MY CHAIR ROTFLMAO when I saw the UKMET's 12z run ... Um, now really, Bonnie waiting for Charley to catch up and the two combine? ... I THINK NOT ...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

What's the deal with the UKMET? Didn't it used to be one of the better models?

Stormsfury · #11 Postby **Stormsfury** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 4:37 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:
Stormsfury wrote:Speaking of model guidance ... I just FELL OUT OF MY CHAIR ROTFLMAO when I saw the UKMET's 12z run ... Um, now really, Bonnie waiting for Charley to catch up and the two combine? ... I THINK NOT ...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

What's the deal with the UKMET? Didn't it used to be one of the better models?

THe UKMET is a pretty good model during phasing events (getting a good read on northern and southern stream phasing) ... and generally does do pretty well on timing as well ...

But at times, it comes up with some of the craziest outputs, especially in regards to tropical systems ...

SF

#12 Postby **Steve Cosby** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 4:39 pm

Stormsfury wrote:THe UKMET is a pretty good model during phasing events (getting a good read on northern and southern stream phasing) ... and generally does do pretty well on timing as well ...

In order words, it remains good with "macro" events which is exactly what it is supposed to be good at (being a global model).

rbaker · #13 Postby **rbaker** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 6:14 pm

agree, the nhc i think, likes the gdfl alot, and gfs, and try to blend with others. But if it is a call towards one or the other that lean towards the gfs.

All of us all model lovers

All of us all model lovers

Re: All of us all model lovers

Re: All of us all model lovers

What's the deal with the UKMET?

Re: What's the deal with the UKMET?

Re: What's the deal with the UKMET?

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