Something to note on all the Model Runs, interesting......

[Dean4Storms]

I 've gone and looked at all the 12z model runs both Global and Tropical and even the Regional. Of all the models that have Charley's center passing east of the Isle of Pines, Cuba the US landfall occurs Tampa or southward. Whereas all the models that have the center passing over the island directly or just to it's west all these models end up with a landfall in Florida from north of Tampa to Appalachicola.

So in essence, we could get a pretty good picture of where Charley ends up by seeing to which side of the Isle of Pines Charley tracks.

[Dean4Storms]

These links will help you see what I'm getting at (good example).......

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL01.html


http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL02.html

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL03.html

http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LMDL04.html