By comparism, when hurricane Hugo slammed into South Carolina in 1989, the core of max winds...or the core where major hurricane conditions occurred was about 80 miles wide, extending over 55 miles to the NE and about 25 miles SW of the landfall point (Isle of Palms, SC).
What would the effects be on south Florida is a "Hugo-sized" cat-4 (135-140 mph/ 934 mb) were to strike? If a hurricane of Hugo's windfield parameter were to take Andrew's track across south Florida....from landfall at Homestead west through the Everglades into the GOM, West Palm Beach would have experienced wind gusts of 110 mph. ALL of Dade county and Broward county..as well as southern Palm Beach county would have experienced sustained winds of 115 mph or more, with gusts to 145-150 mph. The Upper Florida Keys would also have experienced major hurricane conditions, along with a large storm surge from Florida Bay (from 115+ mph westerly winds). Along the Florida southwest coast (which escaped the core of Andrew), it's likely all of Collier county would have experienced 120+ mph sustained winds..as would most of Lee county, including Fort Myers and Cape Coral
100-120 mph gusts would have occurred as far north as southern Sarasota county.
Hurricane Hugo's eye was 35 miles across at landfall...so the northern edge of a similar-size/ intensity hurricane's eye making landfall at Homestead would pass through downtown Miami. The result? Sustained winds from 135-140 mph and a devastating 11-13' storm surge would innundate Key Biscayne, Miami Beach, and downtown Miami. The extreme winds would cover all of Dade county...not just the narrow swath that missed downtown Miami in Andrew.
What would happen if a hurricane as large and intense as Hugo were to take Charley's path across Florida....from Dry Tortugas to Charlotte Harbor to Orlando & Daytona Beach? Everyone from near Sarasota to south of Marco Island would experience major hurricane conditions (115+ mph sustained winds)....and a storm surge of 15-19' would occur from Venice to Everglades City. Key West, which escaped Charley with 55-60 mph gusts would experience wind gusts in the 120-135 mph range...as well as a 7-10' storm surge. The eastern edge of the 35 mile wide eye would move inland directly over Fort Myers....and those islands from Captiva to Marco would go under water.
Orlando would likely experience winds even stronger than during Charley's passage....except the swath of 100+ mph winds would be much wider, and affect areas around Brevard county as well as Daytona.
A large hurricane on this track would also likely remain a major and dangerous hurricane as it accelerated through the Carolinas and into New England (the core wouldn't collapse from land effects and shear as quickly as Charley's did last Friday night. That's why Donna was a cat-4 in Florida and a major hurricane even into Connecticut and Rhode Island).
I'm not trying to frighten you....but instead alert and inform. As bad as a small, violent hurricane is.....a large hurricane of a similar intensity would be far worse for southern Florida. When did the last really large and intense hurricane impact southern Florida? Well, Donna was a large hurricane....much larger than Andrew or Charley, but still smaller than Hugo.
Memorable hurricanes in Florida's past that were in the same size and intensity range as Hugo include the severe Keys/ Texas hurricane of September 9-10, 1919.....the Great Miami hurricane of September 18, 1926....the tremendous and deadly "San Felipe" hurricane on September 16-17, 1928, and a monster category 4 hurricane in mid-September 1947 which caused 100+ mph winds across virtually the entire Florida peninsula south of a Melbourne to Sarasota line (even though landfall occurred just north of Fort Lauderdale then west across Naples and into the GOM). This hurricane was so large and intense (940 mb/ 27.75" mb), that the Miami WBO experienced 110 mph sustained winds....even though the eye passed 30 miles to their north (Miami was on the WEAK side of the eyewall). West Palm Beach airport measured wind gusts to 140 mph before the anemometer blew away.
