Orlando Mets vs. NHC

[jlauderdal]

NHC was slow on Irene also.

TELEVISION
Viewers' reliance on TV forecasters is sign of news evolution

By Hal Boedeker | Sentinel Television Critic
Posted August 15, 2004


When the National Hurricane Center lagged on predicting Hurricane Charley's path Friday, television meteorologists stepped in to warn Central Florida to brace.

"The Hurricane Center was wrong, flat wrong," WFTV-Channel 9 news director Bob Jordan said Saturday. "By getting this word out yesterday, it's the reason the streets were deserted as early as they were. It was a safer community."

Jordan cited chief meteorologist Tom Terry for recognizing three hours before the center did that the hurricane had turned to the northeast. WFTV is playing up Terry's feat in a commercial, though competitors WKMG-Channel 6 and WESH-Channel 2 said they delivered the same news early.

But the center near Miami wasn't saluting the Central Florida forecasts.

"I think it's a real disservice to let anybody think they're going to have a perfect forecast," said Max Mayfield, center director. "The intensity is of greater concern than the track. You don't want to focus on the eye. That's a nice, easy thing to plot, but hurricanes affect broad areas."

Yet viewers in Central Florida relied heavily on meteorologists' expertise Friday night. That development underscores how the weathercaster's role has evolved far beyond mere pleasing personality into a well-educated expert versed in the latest equipment.

"The technology gets better, the meteorologists get better at predictions," said WKMG news director Skip Valet. "This is what the viewers demand: as much notice on these storms as we can give them."

Terry and WKMG meteorologist Tom Sorrells agree that the Hurricane Center was slow with critical new information Friday.

"If you see the storm moving a different way than the official line, you owe it to your viewers to tell them," Sorrells said.

"They were late at the worst possible time," Terry said. "It's not the first time I've had to deal with some slow movement on their part."

He consulted news director Jordan, who decided to put aside the official forecast and go with the station's own. WFTV also urged viewers to disregard an ABC News brief that incorrectly said the hurricane was headed to Tampa.

"This is not 'Let's roll the dice, we might be lucky,' " Jordan said. "You have a trained meteorologist saying this is a new track."

Robin Smythe, general manager of Central Florida News 13, noted that meteorologists have been doing their own forecasting for years.

"The last 36 hours have proved we've all got experienced staff meteorologists," she said. "We all use the resources available to make these decisions about weather forecasting. There's not a television station that relies solely on the Hurricane Center."

The forecasting has gained more nuance with the introduction of Doppler radar in recent years.

"From a consumer point of view, Doppler just looks like a promotional tool," said WESH general manager Bill Bauman. "But when the storm comes in and you see it in action and what it allows our people to do, it's an extraordinary tool."

WESH meteorologist Leslie Hudson drew a line on air to explain how the hurricane had taken a turn to the east. Terry's explanation of the hurricane's turn will be acknowledged in a WFTV commercial during the weekend.

"If the nice people at my competition are going to take credit for that, they should share it," said WKMG's Valet. "Tom Sorrells was saying the exact same thing."

Sorrells wasn't grabbing for any special attention.

"The bottom line is Central Florida has to be taken care of," he said. "If Leslie is on and Tom is on and I'm on and we see it heading for landfall in South Florida, don't we owe it to our viewers to tell them what we think?"

[caneman]

Yes, this is what I've been stating repeatedly. Listen, I'm no NHC basher but in my opinion when you have a major shift and so close to landfall, I think NHC needs should do away with the every 3 hour update and go on an hourly basis. Not just going on Vortex messages but also rely on Radar. They should always be a step ahead of a local TV met.

[Stormsfury]

Refer to this thread ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=37553

[caneman]

Refer to this thread ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=37553

Yes, I've seen that thread but I don't believe it addresses my point of I think the NHC should update more on the fly rather than a hard and set 3 hour update, otherwise, they make themselved fairly useless on short term/near landfall track.

[Stormsfury]

Refer to this thread ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=37553

Yes, I've seen that thread but I don't believe it addresses my point of I think the NHC should update more on the fly rather than a hard and set 3 hour update, otherwise, they make themselved fairly useless on short term/near landfall track.

They got the changes and updates THREE TIMES in a span of a couple of hours ...

Anyways, go here below ... I explained my rant a couple of days ago ..

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=37299

[caneman]

I did read your post. It seemed to me though that where as the local mets were calling it as they saw it. NHC was to concerned/constrained by their advisory times. MAybe I'm wrong hear but watching it all unfold, I got far more from the local mets than I did thru TWC who go hard and fast with NHC advisory times. I guess what I'm saying is that you don't need a vortex message to see a clear movement trend. I'm looking at it from the persons point of view who is only watching the weather due to the severity of the situation. In their eyes the local mets get all the credit and NHC perhaps loses some credibility. All I'm saying is that in our jobs and in society we are constantly evolving to perfect ourselves, our jobs, efficiences, etc....... And NHC should be know different. If more frequent updates are needed. THEN DO IT.

[Guest]

It seems that when NHC issues a forecast track they expect the storm to follow that track precisely to the point where they seem in denial.If they say that the storm will be moving North & it begins moving North right on cue but then a few hours later it begins to move NNE,they still have it as moving north even though it was not just a wobble.NHC has a history of doing this.Not just with Charley.Its true that some local mets have 1 up on NHC on this situation...Heck anyone that can see saw this taking place with Charley.I witnessed some frightening jumps east with Charley only to be confirmed by the local mets here in Miami while NHC was saying "This is most likely a wobble,we should see it resume on the forecast track"..2 hours later Punta Gorda & surrounding areas were obliterated.

I agree with caneman when he said "I think NHC needs should do away with the every 3 hour update and go on an hourly basis. Not just going on Vortex messages but also rely on Radar. They should always be a step ahead of a local TV met."

I also believe that NHC needs to do away with the center line & exact plots in their forecast when the storm becomes a threat to land.They should stick with the cone/swath & maybe another thinner cone/swath inside that one.That center line/exact plots are a bit to bold & not that accurate & seems to single one place out while the cone/swath gives them a margin for error & does not single any one location out.

[corpusbreeze]

Its good yall have mets that will step up and say the things that need to be said. Due potential law suits most local mets will only quote What the NHC puts out. They are afraid to state the obvious for fear of being slammed and sued, if they are wrong.

[Lindaloo]

Potential lawsuits?? LOL!! Sorry, I could not help myself.

[Scott_inVA]

Sorry folks. time to unload.

I need duct tape around my head to keep it from exploding

NHC was slow on Irene also.

TELEVISION
Viewers' reliance on TV forecasters is sign of news evolution

By Hal Boedeker | Sentinel Television Critic
Posted August 15, 2004


When the National Hurricane Center lagged on predicting Hurricane Charley's path Friday, television meteorologists stepped in to warn Central Florida to brace.

"The Hurricane Center was wrong, flat wrong," WFTV-Channel 9 news director Bob Jordan said Saturday. "By getting this word out yesterday, it's the reason the streets were deserted as early as they were. It was a safer community."

Gee. That's helpful. Let's publicly rip NHC so the public disregards future advisory information from the agency. We (radio and TV) are licensed to serve the public interest. Jordan finds this self-serving bravado serves the community?

Jordan cited chief meteorologist Tom Terry for recognizing three hours before the center did that the hurricane had turned to the northeast.
So, let's tell everyone in the aftermath of a Cat-4 that the NHC sucks...Hey I have an idea, let's do a promo to convince the public.

WFTV is playing up Terry's feat in a commercial, though competitors WKMG-Channel 6 and WESH-Channel 2 said they delivered the same news early.
Competitors don't like that so, they must do promos also bashing the NHC and stroking their own pipes. Hmmm...does this help and serve the public? No...it tells the public to disregard information the NHC presents and only tune to our OCMs.

But the center near Miami wasn't saluting the Central Florida forecasts.

"I think it's a real disservice to let anybody think they're going to have a perfect forecast," said Max Mayfield, center director. "The intensity is of greater concern than the track. You don't want to focus on the eye. That's a nice, easy thing to plot, but hurricanes affect broad areas."
Here I am defending NHC/TPC and Mayfield tells the public it's not about landfall? Obviously, with Charlie it was not "...a nice, easy thing to plot" since you were slow on the trigger and missed the mark by 100 miles. And you tanked on intensity, too. Mayfield's comments (possibly taken out of context) likewise disserves the public.

Yet viewers in Central Florida relied heavily on meteorologists' expertise Friday night. That development underscores how the weathercaster's role has evolved far beyond mere pleasing personality into a well-educated expert versed in the latest equipment.

"The technology gets better, the meteorologists get better at predictions," said WKMG news director Skip Valet. "This is what the viewers demand: as much notice on these storms as we can give them."
Valet believes he's cornered the market on this notion? [riiiiiip...more duct tape please]. Are these guys in the Accuweather "get rid of NHC" camp?


Terry and WKMG meteorologist Tom Sorrells agree that the Hurricane Center was slow with critical new information Friday.

"If you see the storm moving a different way than the official line, you owe it to your viewers to tell them," Sorrells said.

"They were late at the worst possible time," Terry said. "It's not the first time I've had to deal with some slow movement on their part."
[riiiiiip] "I've" had to deal with some slow movement on their part??? WTF? Does this @ssh0le's head actually fit within a 21" TV screen? What a pompous, self-aggrandizing comment; especially post-landfall. 'Cuse me...I need to vomit.


He consulted news director Jordan, who decided to put aside the official forecast and go with the station's own. WFTV also urged viewers to disregard an ABC News brief that incorrectly said the hurricane was headed to Tampa.

"This is not 'Let's roll the dice, we might be lucky,' " Jordan said. "You have a trained meteorologist saying this is a new track."

Robin Smythe, general manager of Central Florida News 13, noted that meteorologists have been doing their own forecasting for years.

"The last 36 hours have proved we've all got experienced staff meteorologists," she said. "We all use the resources available to make these decisions about weather forecasting. There's not a television station that relies solely on the Hurricane Center."
Fine. I don't rely sole on NWS and SPC for my forecasts. But if I write a cast not in agreement with them I don't cut a promo saying they are incorrect moronic dopes and I'm here to clean-up their mess.

The forecasting has gained more nuance with the introduction of Doppler radar in recent years.

"From a consumer point of view, Doppler just looks like a promotional tool," said WESH general manager Bill Bauman. "But when the storm comes in and you see it in action and what it allows our people to do, it's an extraordinary tool."

WESH meteorologist Leslie Hudson drew a line on air to explain how the hurricane had taken a turn to the east. Terry's explanation of the hurricane's turn will be acknowledged in a WFTV commercial during the weekend.
So this is about stroking our OCMs...reminding our audience and advertisers the NHC is inferior to our TV station.


"If the nice people at my competition are going to take credit for that, they should share it," said WKMG's Valet. "Tom Sorrells was saying the exact same thing."
Typical...a media cat fight. Yes, a confused public is being well-served down there in Central Florida.

Sorrells wasn't grabbing for any special attention.
OMG. I haven't vomited twice in a day since I was 21 and chugged a 4/5 bottle of Jack.

"The bottom line is Central Florida has to be taken care of," he said. "If Leslie is on and Tom is on and I'm on and we see it heading for landfall in South Florida, don't we owe it to our viewers to tell them what we think?"
No the bottom line is we need to tell everyone we are the only station that knows what's going on. By extension the comment reads the NHC doesn't share a desire to take care of their audience. Folks, that is reckless, self-serving and dangerous.

A quick personal reflection. The night before Isabel came in NWS had the usual FFGs up for the area but honked winds with inland tropical storm warnings and high wind warnings. Their morning AFD advertised 1.5 - 2.5" rain. The area never saw 40MPH winds but did receive from two to thirteen inches of rain with spots seeing higher water than with Camille: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/gallery/gallery7.htm

Local flooding was horrific but it took urgent calls from me and local Emergency Management to get FFWs posted for affected areas. NWS was putrid...SPC didn't see it coming...NHC/TPC made only modest mention of significant flooding along the mountains. NOAA totally failed this part of Virginia. Our coverage received kudos and we certainly ran promos. But we sold our coverage and experience on its' own merits. Our opinion was if we rip "official" agencies people may disregard WWAs the next time this happens. We refused to build ourselves up by tearing down NOAA. Maybe we're just stupid hillbillies up here, but that seemed the right thing to do. I'm damn proud of how we handled Isabel...during and after the disaster.

The TV stations down there are an embarrassment to the business I've been in for 31 years and love. We're supposed to help people. I wasn't in Orlando so maybe they did help their audiences. This time. What the hell happens the next time a storm comes in and these jabonies don't like what the NHC is presenting? Do they start doing their own tracks, telling the public to screw NHC's? Do they issue their own evacuations? Maybe their own warnings?

At the end of the day all this bravado is NOT about serving the public interest. It is about ratings and making money.

And that, folks, is why the public is confused and so distrustful of media.

Sorry for the long rant. And I'm sorry for Central Florida if this is the "level" of broadcasting there.

[caneman]

Sorry folks. time to unload.

I need duct tape around my head to keep it from exploding

NHC was slow on Irene also.

TELEVISION
Viewers' reliance on TV forecasters is sign of news evolution

By Hal Boedeker | Sentinel Television Critic
Posted August 15, 2004


When the National Hurricane Center lagged on predicting Hurricane Charley's path Friday, television meteorologists stepped in to warn Central Florida to brace.

"The Hurricane Center was wrong, flat wrong," WFTV-Channel 9 news director Bob Jordan said Saturday. "By getting this word out yesterday, it's the reason the streets were deserted as early as they were. It was a safer community."

Gee. That's helpful. Let's publicly rip NHC so the public disregards future advisory information from the agency. We (radio and TV) are licensed to serve the public interest. Jordan finds this self-serving bravado serves the community?

Jordan cited chief meteorologist Tom Terry for recognizing three hours before the center did that the hurricane had turned to the northeast.
So, let's tell everyone in the aftermath of a Cat-4 that the NHC sucks...Hey I have an idea, let's do a promo to convince the public.

WFTV is playing up Terry's feat in a commercial, though competitors WKMG-Channel 6 and WESH-Channel 2 said they delivered the same news early.
Competitors don't like that so, they must do promos also bashing the NHC and stroking their own pipes. Hmmm...does this help and serve the public? No...it tells the public to disregard information the NHC presents and only tune to our OCMs.

But the center near Miami wasn't saluting the Central Florida forecasts.

"I think it's a real disservice to let anybody think they're going to have a perfect forecast," said Max Mayfield, center director. "The intensity is of greater concern than the track. You don't want to focus on the eye. That's a nice, easy thing to plot, but hurricanes affect broad areas."
Here I am defending NHC/TPC and Mayfield tells the public it's not about landfall? Obviously, with Charlie it was not "...a nice, easy thing to plot" since you were slow on the trigger and missed the mark by 100 miles. And you tanked on intensity, too. Mayfield's comments (possibly taken out of context) likewise disserves the public.

Yet viewers in Central Florida relied heavily on meteorologists' expertise Friday night. That development underscores how the weathercaster's role has evolved far beyond mere pleasing personality into a well-educated expert versed in the latest equipment.

"The technology gets better, the meteorologists get better at predictions," said WKMG news director Skip Valet. "This is what the viewers demand: as much notice on these storms as we can give them."
Valet believes he's cornered the market on this notion? [riiiiiip...more duct tape please]. Are these guys in the Accuweather "get rid of NHC" camp?


Terry and WKMG meteorologist Tom Sorrells agree that the Hurricane Center was slow with critical new information Friday.

"If you see the storm moving a different way than the official line, you owe it to your viewers to tell them," Sorrells said.

"They were late at the worst possible time," Terry said. "It's not the first time I've had to deal with some slow movement on their part."
[riiiiiip] "I've" had to deal with some slow movement on their part??? WTF? Does this @ssh0le's head actually fit within a 21" TV screen? What a pompous, self-aggrandizing comment; especially post-landfall. 'Cuse me...I need to vomit.


He consulted news director Jordan, who decided to put aside the official forecast and go with the station's own. WFTV also urged viewers to disregard an ABC News brief that incorrectly said the hurricane was headed to Tampa.

"This is not 'Let's roll the dice, we might be lucky,' " Jordan said. "You have a trained meteorologist saying this is a new track."

Robin Smythe, general manager of Central Florida News 13, noted that meteorologists have been doing their own forecasting for years.

"The last 36 hours have proved we've all got experienced staff meteorologists," she said. "We all use the resources available to make these decisions about weather forecasting. There's not a television station that relies solely on the Hurricane Center."
Fine. I don't rely sole on NWS and SPC for my forecasts. But if I write a cast not in agreement with them I don't cut a promo saying they are incorrect moronic dopes and I'm here to clean-up their mess.

The forecasting has gained more nuance with the introduction of Doppler radar in recent years.

"From a consumer point of view, Doppler just looks like a promotional tool," said WESH general manager Bill Bauman. "But when the storm comes in and you see it in action and what it allows our people to do, it's an extraordinary tool."

WESH meteorologist Leslie Hudson drew a line on air to explain how the hurricane had taken a turn to the east. Terry's explanation of the hurricane's turn will be acknowledged in a WFTV commercial during the weekend.
So this is about stroking our OCMs...reminding our audience and advertisers the NHC is inferior to our TV station.


"If the nice people at my competition are going to take credit for that, they should share it," said WKMG's Valet. "Tom Sorrells was saying the exact same thing."
Typical...a media cat fight. Yes, a confused public is being well-served down there in Central Florida.

Sorrells wasn't grabbing for any special attention.
OMG. I haven't vomited twice in a day since I was 21 and chugged a 4/5 bottle of Jack.

"The bottom line is Central Florida has to be taken care of," he said. "If Leslie is on and Tom is on and I'm on and we see it heading for landfall in South Florida, don't we owe it to our viewers to tell them what we think?"
No the bottom line is we need to tell everyone we are the only station that knows what's going on. By extension the comment reads the NHC doesn't share a desire to take care of their audience. Folks, that is reckless, self-serving and dangerous.

A quick personal reflection. The night before Isabel came in NWS had the usual FFGs up for the area but honked winds with inland tropical storm warnings and high wind warnings. Their morning AFD advertised 1.5 - 2.5" rain. The area never saw 40MPH winds but did receive from two to thirteen inches of rain with spots seeing higher water than with Camille: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/gallery/gallery7.htm

Local flooding was horrific but it took urgent calls from me and local Emergency Management to get FFWs posted for affected areas. NWS was putrid...SPC didn't see it coming...NHC/TPC made only modest mention of significant flooding along the mountains. NOAA totally failed this part of Virginia. Our coverage received kudos and we certainly ran promos. But we sold our coverage and experience on its' own merits. Our opinion was if we rip "official" agencies people may disregard WWAs the next time this happens. We refused to build ourselves up by tearing down NOAA. Maybe we're just stupid hillbillies up here, but that seemed the right thing to do. I'm damn proud of how we handled Isabel...during and after the disaster.

The TV stations down there are an embarrassment to the business I've been in for 31 years and love. We're supposed to help people. I wasn't in Orlando so maybe they did help their audiences. This time. What the hell happens the next time a storm comes in and these jabonies don't like what the NHC is presenting? Do they start doing their own tracks, telling the public to screw NHC's? Do they issue their own evacuations? Maybe their own warnings?

At the end of the day all this bravado is NOT about serving the public interest. It is about ratings and making money.

And that, folks, is why the public is confused and so distrustful of media.

Sorry for the long rant. And I'm sorry for Central Florida if this is the "level" of broadcasting there.

Scott, I understand your opinion. Certainly you shouldn't rip someone else in order to build yourself up. But it became very clear to me how slow NHC having been in Kissimmee. Thank God the local reporters reported what they did because instead of only having 4 or 5 hours to prepare. Locals had 7 or 8 hours to prepare. Nobody was on the road when the storm hit. How many people might have been on the roads given a few hours later notice? How many people where no able to go out and get water and non-perishables. The point here is that NHC needs to be as flexible as a local weather guy in order to maintain their status. That is not just coming from me, that is coming from nearly 100 people in my Hotel and many locals I spoke with that got the extra 2 or 3 hours from the local weather guy to help them prepare.

[jlauderdal]

Sorry folks. time to unload.

I need duct tape around my head to keep it from exploding

NHC was slow on Irene also.

TELEVISION
Viewers' reliance on TV forecasters is sign of news evolution

By Hal Boedeker | Sentinel Television Critic
Posted August 15, 2004


When the National Hurricane Center lagged on predicting Hurricane Charley's path Friday, television meteorologists stepped in to warn Central Florida to brace.

"The Hurricane Center was wrong, flat wrong," WFTV-Channel 9 news director Bob Jordan said Saturday. "By getting this word out yesterday, it's the reason the streets were deserted as early as they were. It was a safer community."

Gee. That's helpful. Let's publicly rip NHC so the public disregards future advisory information from the agency. We (radio and TV) are licensed to serve the public interest. Jordan finds this self-serving bravado serves the community?

Jordan cited chief meteorologist Tom Terry for recognizing three hours before the center did that the hurricane had turned to the northeast.
So, let's tell everyone in the aftermath of a Cat-4 that the NHC sucks...Hey I have an idea, let's do a promo to convince the public.

WFTV is playing up Terry's feat in a commercial, though competitors WKMG-Channel 6 and WESH-Channel 2 said they delivered the same news early.
Competitors don't like that so, they must do promos also bashing the NHC and stroking their own pipes. Hmmm...does this help and serve the public? No...it tells the public to disregard information the NHC presents and only tune to our OCMs.

But the center near Miami wasn't saluting the Central Florida forecasts.

"I think it's a real disservice to let anybody think they're going to have a perfect forecast," said Max Mayfield, center director. "The intensity is of greater concern than the track. You don't want to focus on the eye. That's a nice, easy thing to plot, but hurricanes affect broad areas."
Here I am defending NHC/TPC and Mayfield tells the public it's not about landfall? Obviously, with Charlie it was not "...a nice, easy thing to plot" since you were slow on the trigger and missed the mark by 100 miles. And you tanked on intensity, too. Mayfield's comments (possibly taken out of context) likewise disserves the public.

Yet viewers in Central Florida relied heavily on meteorologists' expertise Friday night. That development underscores how the weathercaster's role has evolved far beyond mere pleasing personality into a well-educated expert versed in the latest equipment.

"The technology gets better, the meteorologists get better at predictions," said WKMG news director Skip Valet. "This is what the viewers demand: as much notice on these storms as we can give them."
Valet believes he's cornered the market on this notion? [riiiiiip...more duct tape please]. Are these guys in the Accuweather "get rid of NHC" camp?


Terry and WKMG meteorologist Tom Sorrells agree that the Hurricane Center was slow with critical new information Friday.

"If you see the storm moving a different way than the official line, you owe it to your viewers to tell them," Sorrells said.

"They were late at the worst possible time," Terry said. "It's not the first time I've had to deal with some slow movement on their part."
[riiiiiip] "I've" had to deal with some slow movement on their part??? WTF? Does this @ssh0le's head actually fit within a 21" TV screen? What a pompous, self-aggrandizing comment; especially post-landfall. 'Cuse me...I need to vomit.


He consulted news director Jordan, who decided to put aside the official forecast and go with the station's own. WFTV also urged viewers to disregard an ABC News brief that incorrectly said the hurricane was headed to Tampa.

"This is not 'Let's roll the dice, we might be lucky,' " Jordan said. "You have a trained meteorologist saying this is a new track."

Robin Smythe, general manager of Central Florida News 13, noted that meteorologists have been doing their own forecasting for years.

"The last 36 hours have proved we've all got experienced staff meteorologists," she said. "We all use the resources available to make these decisions about weather forecasting. There's not a television station that relies solely on the Hurricane Center."
Fine. I don't rely sole on NWS and SPC for my forecasts. But if I write a cast not in agreement with them I don't cut a promo saying they are incorrect moronic dopes and I'm here to clean-up their mess.

The forecasting has gained more nuance with the introduction of Doppler radar in recent years.

"From a consumer point of view, Doppler just looks like a promotional tool," said WESH general manager Bill Bauman. "But when the storm comes in and you see it in action and what it allows our people to do, it's an extraordinary tool."

WESH meteorologist Leslie Hudson drew a line on air to explain how the hurricane had taken a turn to the east. Terry's explanation of the hurricane's turn will be acknowledged in a WFTV commercial during the weekend.
So this is about stroking our OCMs...reminding our audience and advertisers the NHC is inferior to our TV station.


"If the nice people at my competition are going to take credit for that, they should share it," said WKMG's Valet. "Tom Sorrells was saying the exact same thing."
Typical...a media cat fight. Yes, a confused public is being well-served down there in Central Florida.

Sorrells wasn't grabbing for any special attention.
OMG. I haven't vomited twice in a day since I was 21 and chugged a 4/5 bottle of Jack.

"The bottom line is Central Florida has to be taken care of," he said. "If Leslie is on and Tom is on and I'm on and we see it heading for landfall in South Florida, don't we owe it to our viewers to tell them what we think?"
No the bottom line is we need to tell everyone we are the only station that knows what's going on. By extension the comment reads the NHC doesn't share a desire to take care of their audience. Folks, that is reckless, self-serving and dangerous.

A quick personal reflection. The night before Isabel came in NWS had the usual FFGs up for the area but honked winds with inland tropical storm warnings and high wind warnings. Their morning AFD advertised 1.5 - 2.5" rain. The area never saw 40MPH winds but did receive from two to thirteen inches of rain with spots seeing higher water than with Camille: http://www.midatlanticwx.com/gallery/gallery7.htm

Local flooding was horrific but it took urgent calls from me and local Emergency Management to get FFWs posted for affected areas. NWS was putrid...SPC didn't see it coming...NHC/TPC made only modest mention of significant flooding along the mountains. NOAA totally failed this part of Virginia. Our coverage received kudos and we certainly ran promos. But we sold our coverage and experience on its' own merits. Our opinion was if we rip "official" agencies people may disregard WWAs the next time this happens. We refused to build ourselves up by tearing down NOAA. Maybe we're just stupid hillbillies up here, but that seemed the right thing to do. I'm damn proud of how we handled Isabel...during and after the disaster.

The TV stations down there are an embarrassment to the business I've been in for 31 years and love. We're supposed to help people. I wasn't in Orlando so maybe they did help their audiences. This time. What the hell happens the next time a storm comes in and these jabonies don't like what the NHC is presenting? Do they start doing their own tracks, telling the public to screw NHC's? Do they issue their own evacuations? Maybe their own warnings?

At the end of the day all this bravado is NOT about serving the public interest. It is about ratings and making money.

And that, folks, is why the public is confused and so distrustful of media.

Sorry for the long rant. And I'm sorry for Central Florida if this is the "level" of broadcasting there.

Scott, I understand your opinion. Certainly you shouldn't rip someone else in order to build yourself up. But it became very clear to me how slow NHC having been in Kissimmee. Thank God the local reporters reported what they did because instead of only having 4 or 5 hours to prepare. Locals had 7 or 8 hours to prepare. Nobody was on the road when the storm hit. How many people might have been on the roads given a few hours later notice? How many people where no able to go out and get water and non-perishables. The point here is that NHC needs to be as flexible as a local weather guy in order to maintain their status. That is not just coming from me, that is coming from nearly 100 people in my Hotel and many locals I spoke with that got the extra 2 or 3 hours from the local weather guy to help them prepare.

When Irene was coming Roland Steadham(nbc miami) had Jerry Jarrell on about 1230 pm and Roland was asking Jerry about the movement toward Sofla and Jerry stuck to the track and finally Roland asked Jerry if he had looked at the radar in the last couple of hours and Jerry said no he was busy doing interviews. At that point Roland went on his own and had his own track.

[soonertwister]

I'm struck with the persistent ability of so many people to deny the truth regarding this hurricane. The NHC did what they were supposed to do, and people, apparently thinking that they are smarter than NHC, chose to do what they thought was best against the advice of NHC and often even their own local officials. We've seen the result of their folly with a number of people dead.

Anyone who wants to criticize the NHC needs to show the the specific information that they did not deliver to the people in order for them to be able to make the right choices for their own personal safety and the safety of their loved ones. Of course the answer to that is you can't find any information to contradict the NHC.

The NHC had projected a track, of which the center appeared to be near the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. The storm track veered just a few degrees to the right of the center of track projection in the hours before landfall, but well within the potential variance shown by the NHC path graphic. This storm was not an outlyer, it was well within the potential track projection.

People gambled with their lives and lost, and now it is all the NHC's fault and FL weather pros are jumping all over themselves in self-congratulation for being heroes as compared to the bumbling NHC.

These people are just plain wrong. The NHC is largely powerless to convince people to evacuate from danger even with their sternest warnings. It is up to the local officials to minimize loss of life by emphasizing everything that the NHC says, not by hedging bets against what they say. If people die from a hurricane that falls within potential path projections, the NHC bears zero blame whatsoever.

The local officials in the areas hardest hit by Charley need to take a hard look at themselves and what they could have done better to make people aware of the danger of a powerful hurricane in the neighborhood. Obviously they hadn't done enough. Maybe they hadn't provided the proper opportunity for people with pets to be sheltered. Maybe they failed to clearly convey the danger to vulnerable elderly. Whatever the reasons, some people made mistakes. To say that the NHC was responsible for any of them is just plain wrong.

This discussion reminds me of a post the other day when some people who were adequately warned by the NHC of the potential danger refused to take actions to protect themselves from danger until is was too late to evacuate. The excuse in that case was that the NHC hadn't let people know of the change of track early enough for the local officials to warn people to evacuate from danger. This type of classic denial runs through these threads like cancer.

In that case those people had been continuously within the potential path of danger for three and one-half days without taking the advice of the NHC, and they got stuck without good choices in the last hours.

Better to blame the NHC for that, too.

[Guest]

I'm struck with the persistent ability of so many people to deny the truth regarding this hurricane. The NHC did what they were supposed to do, and people, apparently thinking that they are smarter than NHC, chose to do what they thought was best against the advice of NHC and often even their own local officials. We've seen the result of their folly with a number of people dead.

Anyone who wants to criticize the NHC needs to show the the specific information that they did not deliver to the people in order for them to be able to make the right choices for their own personal safety and the safety of their loved ones. Of course the answer to that is you can't find any information to contradict the NHC.

The NHC had projected a track, of which the center appeared to be near the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. The storm track veered just a few degrees to the right of the center of track projection in the hours before landfall, but well within the potential variance shown by the NHC path graphic. This storm was not an outlyer, it was well within the potential track projection.

People gambled with their lives and lost, and now it is all the NHC's fault and FL weather pros are jumping all over themselves in self-congratulation for being heroes as compared to the bumbling NHC.

These people are just plain wrong. The NHC is largely powerless to convince people to evacuate from danger even with their sternest warnings. It is up to the local officials to minimize loss of life by emphasizing everything that the NHC says, not by hedging bets against what they say. If people die from a hurricane that falls within potential path projections, the NHC bears zero blame whatsoever.

The local officials in the areas hardest hit by Charley need to take a hard look at themselves and what they could have done better to make people aware of the danger of a powerful hurricane in the neighborhood. Obviously they hadn't done enough. Maybe they hadn't provided the proper opportunity for people with pets to be sheltered. Maybe they failed to clearly convey the danger to vulnerable elderly. Whatever the reasons, some people made mistakes. To say that the NHC was responsible for any of them is just plain wrong.

This discussion reminds me of a post the other day when some people who were adequately warned by the NHC of the potential danger refused to take actions to protect themselves from danger until is was too late to evacuate. The excuse in that case was that the NHC hadn't let people know of the change of track early enough for the local officials to warn people to evacuate from danger. This type of classic denial runs through these threads like cancer.

In that case those people had been continuously within the potential path of danger for three and one-half days without taking the advice of the NHC, and they got stuck without good choices in the last hours.

Better to blame the NHC for that, too.

exactly right.

Fact is, if you're in a hurricane warning, you need to prepare for a hurricane. If there's a definitive projected path that the media and local mets harp on, and you are sold on this, then you're sold on the fact that if it's wrong your life may be at stake. This isn't an exact science. If you don't take care of yourself, you can't expect others to do it for you.

[vbhoutex]

EXCELLENT POST SOONER!!!!!

What a lot of the people who are tossing blame fail to see is that the NHC doesn't forecast for a small area. they are forecasting for ALL the possibilities as a storm approaches a coast. Yes, of course they are going to do as well as they can with both landfall and intensity, but even they say and say often that forecasting is not an exact science, especially when Tropical Cyclones are concerned. IT NEVER WILL BE!!

Rest assured the agencies and others will look back on this with a fine tooted comb and we will all benefit from that look back. Meantime seeing Media outlets congratulating themselves for a good job at th expense of the NHC or any other official forecast agency MAKES ME SICK!!!!! How dare they try and make themselves look better than the agency EVEN THEY RELY ON FOR MUCH OF THEIR INFORMATION???
Excellent points Scott!!!!

[caneman]

I'm struck with the persistent ability of so many people to deny the truth regarding this hurricane. The NHC did what they were supposed to do, and people, apparently thinking that they are smarter than NHC, chose to do what they thought was best against the advice of NHC and often even their own local officials. We've seen the result of their folly with a number of people dead.

Anyone who wants to criticize the NHC needs to show the the specific information that they did not deliver to the people in order for them to be able to make the right choices for their own personal safety and the safety of their loved ones. Of course the answer to that is you can't find any information to contradict the NHC.

The NHC had projected a track, of which the center appeared to be near the Tampa/St. Petersburg area. The storm track veered just a few degrees to the right of the center of track projection in the hours before landfall, but well within the potential variance shown by the NHC path graphic. This storm was not an outlyer, it was well within the potential track projection.

People gambled with their lives and lost, and now it is all the NHC's fault and FL weather pros are jumping all over themselves in self-congratulation for being heroes as compared to the bumbling NHC.

These people are just plain wrong. The NHC is largely powerless to convince people to evacuate from danger even with their sternest warnings. It is up to the local officials to minimize loss of life by emphasizing everything that the NHC says, not by hedging bets against what they say. If people die from a hurricane that falls within potential path projections, the NHC bears zero blame whatsoever.

The local officials in the areas hardest hit by Charley need to take a hard look at themselves and what they could have done better to make people aware of the danger of a powerful hurricane in the neighborhood. Obviously they hadn't done enough. Maybe they hadn't provided the proper opportunity for people with pets to be sheltered. Maybe they failed to clearly convey the danger to vulnerable elderly. Whatever the reasons, some people made mistakes. To say that the NHC was responsible for any of them is just plain wrong.

This discussion reminds me of a post the other day when some people who were adequately warned by the NHC of the potential danger refused to take actions to protect themselves from danger until is was too late to evacuate. The excuse in that case was that the NHC hadn't let people know of the change of track early enough for the local officials to warn people to evacuate from danger. This type of classic denial runs through these threads like cancer.

In that case those people had been continuously within the potential path of danger for three and one-half days without taking the advice of the NHC, and they got stuck without good choices in the last hours.

Better to blame the NHC for that, too.

exactly right.

Fact is, if you're in a hurricane warning, you need to prepare for a hurricane. If there's a definitive projected path that the media and local mets harp on, and you are sold on this, then you're sold on the fact that if it's wrong your life may be at stake. This isn't an exact science. If you don't take care of yourself, you can't expect others to do it for you.

I happen to agree with all of this but it still doesn't change the fact that NHC can give more timely updates perhaps by using Satellite/Radar interpretation. They are constantly looking at ways to learn where systems go, why they rapidly intensify so it wouldn't hurt them to give more timely updates say <12 hours prior to landfall. If they can give 3 and 6 hour updates when a system is far from shore wouldn't hourly updates close to landfall be far even more useful. This isn't bashing NHC. We all have to adapt at our jobs so as not to lose out to competition. Will ive in a fast pace world, i.e., Microwave Ovens, Cell PHone and the list goes on and on. We want it and we want it now, not 3 hours from now. All I'm stating is that if NHC doesn't become more timely near landfall, they should just change their name to ONHC- or the Open Water National Hurricane Center.

[vbhoutex]

Except for your statement about the OWNHC I can't find a lot to argue with Caneman. You have presented some logical thoughts. The question becomes how can those be implemented? On the surface it looks easy from our point of view, but we are not privy to all the inner workings of the governmental agencies involved. I do hope that there is some way that in the future, after thorough review, that maybe the NHC can coordinate with local media better or possibly be able to issue hourly updates as landfall approaches. We have to remember there are lots of resources/parameters involved here that we the public know nothing about that all play into the viablility of some of the changes we think need to be made.

[Guest]

The problem is with 1 hour updates, is that storms can and will slightly wobble, intensify, decrease, etc etc. 1 hour worth of raw data and observation is not enough to make a 'change' to a potential storm, or landfall. 3 hours is generally more than a trend, so changes can be made easier.. I do understand exactly what you are getting at, caneman. It would be wise to advice the media outlets and public a bit more often, but then again it could provide a very misleading interpetation of the information.

[Guest]

I do agree with the logic. great topic to discuss.

[x-y-no]

I happen to agree with all of this but it still doesn't change the fact that NHC can give more timely updates perhaps by using Satellite/Radar interpretation. They are constantly looking at ways to learn where systems go, why they rapidly intensify so it wouldn't hurt them to give more timely updates say <12 hours prior to landfall. If they can give 3 and 6 hour updates when a system is far from shore wouldn't hourly updates close to landfall be far even more useful. This isn't bashing NHC. We all have to adapt at our jobs so as not to lose out to competition. Will ive in a fast pace world, i.e., Microwave Ovens, Cell PHone and the list goes on and on. We want it and we want it now, not 3 hours from now. All I'm stating is that if NHC doesn't become more timely near landfall, they should just change their name to ONHC- or the Open Water National Hurricane Center.

Well, yeah ... there's no harm in saying a product can be even better, and I think you're right that theirs could be. But that didn't quite seem to be the spirit of what was being said by the Orlando mets. There's a big difference between "they were slow and this isn't the first time" and "they gave us a lot of good information but here's how I think they could do better."