AFD NWS San Juan=Flip flop forecast for wave

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cycloneye
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AFD NWS San Juan=Flip flop forecast for wave

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:31 pm

This is from discussion at the San Juan NWS:

Looking ahead ... models have been all over the place with timing of
tropical wave for sunday through tuesday time frame and 12z gfs run
was no exception ... being faster. the intensity forecasts have been
pretty consistent ... with the models having backed off ... at least for
now ... on any closed circulation ... now bringing just an open tropical
wave across or just south of the local islands sunday through
monday. given the big uncertainties this far out and to avoid the
forecast flip flop effect ... opted to not make large changes to
sunday through tuesday forecast for now.

My take about it is that nothing is clear yet about the future of the wave in the Atlantic.
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ROCK
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#2 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:42 pm

No doubt, but whats clear is the wave better gain some latitude if its going to make the islands..... :eek:
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#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 18, 2004 4:48 pm

Welcome ROCK to storm2k and enjoy all of what storm2k has besides this hurricane hollow forum.
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#4 Postby ROCK » Wed Aug 18, 2004 7:44 pm

thanks Cyclone eye...I dont know a whole lot but I try...you guys on here dont beat me up to bad.... :D
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