Hurricane Frank Forecast/Advisory Number 4
Statement as of 21:00Z on August 23, 2004
hurricane center located near 18.4n 113.0w at 23/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 12 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 987 mb
eye diameter 15 nm
Max sustained winds 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
64 kt....... 10ne 10se 10sw 10nw.
50 kt....... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt....... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
12 ft seas.. 70ne 60se 60sw 70nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 18.4n 113.0w at 23/2100z
at 23/1800z center was located near 18.0n 112.5w
forecast valid 24/0600z 19.2n 114.2w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
64 kt... 15ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt... 30ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.
Forecast valid 24/1800z 20.3n 116.0w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.
Forecast valid 25/0600z 21.3n 117.8w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.
Forecast valid 25/1800z 22.0n 119.6w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.
Forecast valid 26/1800z 22.5n 123.0w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 30ne 30se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt... 80ne 80se 80sw 80nw.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 200 nm
on day 4 and 250 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 27/1800z 23.0n 126.0w
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
Outlook valid 28/1800z 23.5n 129.5w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 18.4n 113.0w
next advisory at 24/0300z
forecaster Stewart
