1.0=10.5n-32.4w

[cycloneye]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
24/1800 UTC 10.5N 32.4W T1.0/1.0 96 -- Atlantic Ocean

Finnally SSD dvorak starts to give T numbers to 96L.

[Brent]

LOL, I think it's stronger than that.

Are the 18z models out yet? I want to see what they initialize it at.

[Matthew5]

It looks like a 1.5/2.0 or maybe as high as a 2.0/2.0? Theres a closed LLCC with banding futures with this thing. There is no reason why it should be 1.0/1.0?

[Derek Ortt]

for what its worth (and this isnt much),

I ran an ODT on this around 11 a.m. at HRD and got a CI of about 4.1 However, please do not put much stock into that as 1, the center is nearly impossible to fix and 2, that is designed for well-developed systems, not these formative ones

[Derek Ortt]

This cannot be a 1.5/2.0 as that implies a weakening system. This is definately not weakening

[Derek Ortt]

models have been initialized at 30KT

also, latest tropical model trends are farther west

[James]

Whatever the case, this thing should be a TD at 5:00.

[Brent]

models have been initialized at 30KT

also, latest tropical model trends are farther west

TD 6 at 5pm then.

[Derek Ortt]

Not necessarily, the ATCF does not have this run as 06, still as 96L

[Brent]

Not necessarily, the ATCF does not have this run as 06, still as 96L

NRL has updated and has it at 30 kts, 1009 mb pressure, still as an INVEST.

[Derek Ortt]

It's an invest because ther eis no well defined center. It is more of a monsoon circulation looking at some ship reports. Give give it time and do be so impatient

[MWatkins]

Not necessarily, the ATCF does not have this run as 06, still as 96L

For those who may not know...ATCF ( Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecast ) is a system used by the National Hurricane Center to house model information and key data elements like Dvorak Estimates and best track data etc. Just because this has not been changed over does not mean an upgrade is not eminent. I've seen upgrades in ATCF happen right up to and even after the first public advisory has come out in the past...ATCF data is not always updated on a timely basis from what I can tell.

I'm pretty sure Derrick is referring to an Objective Dvorak Technique, pioneered by the University of Wisconsin (I believe). It is an attempt to take forecaster subjectivity out of the Dvorak process...and a 4.1 on that scale shows the limitations of that methodology IMHO.

Also, I think Matthew5 was trying to say that the system is either a T 1.5 or a T2.0, but not a 1.5 system with a DT of 2.0.

MW