18:00 UTC models=10.6n-33.4w,275 degress13kt,Winds 30 kts

[cycloneye]

NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST (AL962004) ON 20040824 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040824 1800 040825 0600 040825 1800 040826 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 10.6N 33.4W 10.9N 36.6W 11.2N 39.6W 11.9N 42.3W
BAMM 10.6N 33.4W 10.8N 36.5W 11.1N 39.3W 11.9N 41.7W
A98E 10.6N 33.4W 10.8N 36.0W 11.1N 38.9W 11.5N 41.6W
LBAR 10.6N 33.4W 10.8N 36.3W 11.3N 39.3W 12.0N 42.2W
SHIP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 55KTS
DSHP 30KTS 38KTS 47KTS 55KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040826 1800 040827 1800 040828 1800 040829 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 12.7N 44.7W 14.2N 48.6W 15.2N 51.1W 14.9N 53.5W
BAMM 12.9N 43.6W 15.0N 46.4W 16.4N 47.2W 16.8N 47.9W
A98E 11.9N 44.2W 12.5N 48.5W 12.8N 52.4W 12.9N 56.5W
LBAR 12.8N 44.9W 14.9N 49.2W 16.6N 51.6W 17.9N 52.5W
SHIP 62KTS 73KTS 75KTS 75KTS
DSHP 62KTS 73KTS 75KTS 75KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.6N LONCUR = 33.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 10.2N LONM12 = 30.6W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 15KT
LATM24 = 10.0N LONM24 = 27.5W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM

Those winds haved increased to 30 kts and those models have shifted a little more left meaning a more closer aproach to the islands.

[Brent]

Was just about to post this, LOL

That should mean an upgrade to a TD at 5pm right? 30 kts is 35 mph. It's been at 25 kt since yesterday.

Watching NRL...

[Brent]

[rbaker]

If its not at 5pm today, they wait until 5am tommorrow am, unless there is a huge explosion of convection before 11p.

[Josephine96]

Those models that keep it south worry me just a little.. Only because we here in Florida need to get cleaned up from Charley before we handle another 1.. lol

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

YUCK! Could be on a Hugo path......

[cycloneye]

Brent that grafic is not the updated one as those say 12:00.

[Josephine96]

CHV.. I do hope if it goes on a Hugo path.. it's nowhere near as strong as Hugo was..

Now that the streak has been broken of years without a major cane hitting the US.. It'll be interesting to see if Charley is the only major this season that strikes the mainland

[Brent]

Brent that grafic is not the updated one as those say 12:00.

The update time is 18 UTC.



See the top?

Ok Brent those are the latest trends updated.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Crossing my fingers John!

[mascpa]

Tomorrow, Frances will be born. She will quickly have everyone's attention but she won't decide where she wants to go for a few days yet. We should have a better idea by the weekend.

[Matthew5]

Derek do you think it is close to a tropical depession?

[Derek Ortt]

It's very close to a depression, though it still resembles a monsoon depression more than a TD as the center is quite broad yet

[James]

The last Frances back in 1998 was also a monsoon depression when it formed, according to the archives. Deja vu...

[Josephine96]

Frances.. we got our eyes on you//

[Weatherboy1]

Hello everyone -- haven't posted in a while due to other obligations and the relative lack of activity. Good to be back! Regarding "future TD#6," my guess is the NHC is waiting to see if deep convection refires later tonight before declaring this a TD. As with many of this year's potential systems, this one has seen an afternoon decrease in convection (and that's typical for developing systems overall -- the deepest convection tends to fire overnight). Should we get more deep reds in IR imagery, I think they'll classify this as TD6 at 11 p.m. or 5 a.m. tomorrow.

As for the eventual track, I think we have plenty of time to watch, wait and see what develops in terms of model trends. Even if this were to make a beeline for the Northern Caribbean, it wouldn't get there until about 6 days from now. And it wouldn't reach the US coast for probably 3 days after that. In other words, this thing isn't going to be another "flyer" heading W or WNW at 25 mph like Charley and Earl. It's going to plod along like a more-normal CV system.

My suspicion is that TD6 will slow and turn slightly NW in a few days in response to a weakening in the subtropical ridge. But it looks like an increasing number of models are indicating a turn back to the W or WNW in the day 5 timeframe. So that seems reasonable to me. We'll see. Since I'm traveling to Connecticut and Boston late next week and over Labor Day, I hope this thing doesn't go to Florida. I won't be able to put up the shutters!

[cycloneye]

The system this afternoon looks a little streched and convection is not too deep at this time and that is why it will not be upgraded this afternoon.

[Josephine96]

Better not make it to Florida unless we're all cleaned up lol

[Derecho]

YUCK! Could be on a Hugo path......

Don't worry; every single time in the last 8 years I've seen a tropical wave or TD compared to a famous hurricane, it's turned out nothing remotely like the storm compared to.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Derecho, that's great news!