depression is VERY ragged

[Derek Ortt]

Our TD has become extremely ragged this morning in just the last 6 hours. The concentrated area of deep convection has dissipated and we now have only scattered convection. SSM/I still shows a moisture envelope; however, conventional WV imagery show what could be a SAL surge approaching the system from the east.


This means possibly two things. 1. This cyclone may not come close to the intensity that we had previously expected. 2. The weaker system will come farther west; however, being a weak system, it may not be a big deal.This is perhaps what the 0Z GFS was speculating on bringing just a broad low and not a true TC to the west

[Brent]

Strange. Just read the 5am advisory that said it was better organized and then I looked at IR and was like "What"? LOL

[Derek Ortt]

the collapse has occurred wihtin the past couple of hours.

This kind of reminds me of TD 2 from 2000

[rainstorm]

if a sal surge hits it, it will start flying west