UKMET says fish?

[Anonymous]

Looking at the Ukmet, there will be a weakness in the Ridge in 144 hrs with Frances headed towards or just below the weakness.... Any chance Frances will go north and pass east of Cape Hatteras??? Or would this merely cause another Stairstep?

[Guest]

I think it will hit the U.S... Right now (its a guess) I bet it landfalls in North Carolina. If it doesn't do that, I'd say Florida, Georgia or South Carolina. Or it could clip the East coast. Only time will tell. But the GFS from 6 this morning has it hitting North Carolina and moving up to just West of DC .

[BUD]

I have notice that also BUT all other models are west track.

[TLHR]

GDFL says Carolinas, but it's way early in the game.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Guest]

all of those 'models' you are looking at are just the average of the suite of ensemble runs. to really figure things out you cannot just look at those types of calculations. but i digress.

[rbaker]

ukmet is way too far right, the storm is already approaching 45 w and it has it on a wnw to nw course earlier than that. Next run of ukmet will be back to the left. Looks like gfs has had the best handle on frances so far.