7:00AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE, AUGUST 27, 2004

[vbhoutex]

7:00 AM CDT ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL UPDATE
FRIDAY, AUGUST 27, 2004

Hurricane Frances has continued to grow and organize overnight and is now located at lat. 14.5N, lon. 48.4W or about 865 miles East of the Lesser Antilles Islands. Frances has slowed a little from her forward motion yesterday and is now moving around 14 mph to the West_Northwest. The slow decrease in forward speed is expected to continue today as Frances may be responding to the predicted weakness in the subtropical ridge to her North. This may also result in a short term more Northwesterly motion today, but this is not expected to continue as the trough causing the weakness in the ridge is already starting to lift out. Currently maximum sustained winds in Hurricane Frances are 90 mph with gusts to 115 mph. Hurricane force winds extend up to 15 miles from the center of the storm and tropical storm force winds extend up to 85 miles. Since Frances is in an almost ideal environment for continued development more strengthening is expected today and she may become a major CAT3 hurricane within the next 48 hours, if not sooner. Although there is osme southwesterly shear to the West of Frances this shear is expected to diminish and should not be a factor in the expected continued strengthening of this hurricane. The estimated central pressure of Hurricane Frances is currently 975mb or 28.79". Hurricane Frances is several days away from being a threat to any landmass, but appears to be developing and growing into what could be another major hurricane. If the predicted track and strengthening of this hurricane continues to unfold as expected over the next week or so residents in the Bahamas and along the Southeast coast of the United States will need to begin to closely monitor Hurricane Frances.

Two low pressure areas have developed along an old frontal boundary in the Atlantic, one off the South Carolina coast and one near Bermuda. Pressures in the area continue to be normal and are showing no signs of dropping. No development is expected from these systems.

Elsewhere in the tropics no tropical storm formation is expected through Saturday.

This is not an official forecast product. For official forecast products contact the NHC or your local NWS office.

by David Van Bergen(vbhoutex)