FYI...UKMET Left Again

[MWatkins]

Look the biggest argument against the two storms (or potential storms) developing and turning Frances north is the most recent run of the UKMET model. It initializes the SC system well and drags it slow into SC/GA as a tropical cyclone...where the remnants merge with a weak low-level boundary.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukm ... =Animation

However...it squashes development of the Bermuda system under rising pressure heights all around the western Atlantic. It keeps it as a little bit of trough in the lower levels...but this system will not punch a hole in the western Atlantic ridge. As a result of this...the UKMET has once again shifted to the west of the previous run and has an intense storm riding into the southern Bahamas in 6 days...


HURRICANE FRANCES ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 49.1W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 27.08.2004 14.7N 49.1W MODERATE

00UTC 28.08.2004 16.2N 50.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 28.08.2004 17.2N 52.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2004 18.7N 54.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.08.2004 19.7N 56.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.08.2004 20.3N 58.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2004 20.5N 60.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.08.2004 21.0N 62.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2004 21.4N 65.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2004 22.1N 67.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.09.2004 22.8N 69.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.09.2004 23.7N 71.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2004 24.4N 72.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

MW

[dhweather]

Interesting - That would be five storms affecting the Carolinas in five weeks?

[Guest]

what would the wind speed according if it became "intense" like the ukmet says it will?

[caneman]

Interesting - That would be five storms affecting the Carolinas in five weeks?

Not to speak for MW but I don't believe he or the model is prediciting a Carolina hit. On this course, it looks like North/Central Florida

[Lowpressure]

MW DID NOT SAY ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR WILL BE HIT AT THIS POINT.

[caneman]

MW DID NOT SAY ANYWHERE IN PARTICULAR WILL BE HIT AT THIS POINT.

No he didn't but he was implying a left shift and clearly the model shows it moving West. Not to Carolina. And in fact, aiming right towards Florida.

[Lowpressure]

I just see it that MW is pointing out model trends. He clearly states in most post that forecasting 5 plus days has a traditional 300 or more mile window of error. I think everyone needs to be prudent and watch this storm, but it is far too early to pick landfall with any accuracy or responsibility. You can have a little fun and guess, but nothing more at this juncture.

[MWatkins]

Interesting - That would be five storms affecting the Carolinas in five weeks?

No...not at all. I suppose it could happen...but if the UKMET and GFS models get close to verifying in the 6 to 7 day period then a possible NC strike is probably not going to happen from Frances...I'm not sure where you would have picked up 5 systems in the month from my comments...

Td7 is going into SC/GA...the system near bermuda probably wont develop much. The only question is Frances...and there is not a definative answer. All we know is that the global models are trending west...including TD7.

The only way TD7 influences track significantly is if it strengthens beyond the forecast rate...and gets into a deeper steering layer....and remains stationary for several days.

Right now most of the weakness it will create will be in the lower levels...and this weakness will get kicked out by a shortwave rotating through in a couple of days.

BTW thanks lowpressure and caneman...you are both correct...I am not making any sort of landfall call at this time...

MW