5pm TD-7 TS Watch from Fernandina Beach to Surf City, NC

[Brent]

Only forecast to reach 45 mph sustained before landfall.

Tropical Depression Seven Forecast/Advisory Number 1


Statement as of 21:00Z on August 27, 2004



at 5 PM EDT...2100z...a tropical storm watch has been issued for
portions of the southeastern U.S. Coast from Cape Fear North
Carolina southward to Fernandina Beach Florida.

Tropical depression center located near 31.6n 78.1w at 27/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west or 270 degrees at 1 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 1014 mb
Max sustained winds 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 31.6n 78.1w at 27/2100z
at 27/1800z center was located near 31.6n 78.0w

forecast valid 28/0600z 31.5n 78.7w
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 28/1800z 32.0n 79.5w
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 29/0600z 32.8n 80.0w...inland
Max wind 40 kt...gusts 50 kt.
34 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 40nw.

Forecast valid 29/1800z 33.7n 79.4w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Forecast valid 30/1800z 35.1n 77.7w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 31/1800z 39.0n 74.0w...over water
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 01/1800z 42.0n 64.0w...extratropical
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 31.6n 78.1w

next advisory at 28/0300z

forecaster Stewart

[Brent]

Looks like a landfall late tomorrow or Early Sunday between Charleston and Myrtle Beach(sound familiar?)

[Trader Ron]

A Lil wind and a Lil rain..

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 2004

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN FORMS OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED...

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA SOUTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH FLORIDA.

AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT
140 MILES... 225 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA.

THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A SLOW WESTWARD DRIFT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TONIGHT. THIS MOTION COULD BRING THE CENTER
CLOSER TO THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1014 MB...29.94 INCHES.

THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...31.6 N... 78.1 W. MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1014 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[x-y-no]

Central pressure still pretty high ...

[TLHR]

No surprise really.
Conditions started going downhill around 11 am today.
This ones gonna be a soaker, which is NOT good if Frances comes our way.

[hurricanefreak1988]

Looks like a landfall late tomorrow or Early Sunday between Charleston and Myrtle Beach(sound familiar?)

You know, that's the first thing I thought of. Let's hope TD 7 doesn't just sit around for a long time like Alex did.

[TLHR]

I just read a weather discussion on another thread that said this could, I repeat, could, come ashore with winds near 75 mph?!?!