"Great" News For Miami

[jlauderdal]

Just what we need...SW flow the next few days driving afternoon convection to the coast than the high builds in and we go easterly flow helping to steer frances...so basically the ground gets real wet than we MIGHT have to deal with Frances in whatever form. nice situation setting up.


SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004

.DISCUSSION...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SOUTHWARD TODAY...MAKING IT INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY TONIGHT.
IN RESPONSE TO THIS...AND THE LARGE SCALE FLOW AROUND T.D. SEVEN...
SURFACE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AN ESTABLISHMENT OF A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALL THE WAY
UP TO 300 MB BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. AS SUCH...SEA BREEZE FORMATION IS EXPECTED
EACH DAY...ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
CONCENTRATED OVER INTERIOR AND EASTERN AREAS...DUE TO THE WSW FLOW.

THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO RETURN NORTHWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL FOCUS THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION TOWARDS THE GULF
COASTAL AREAS.

PLEASE REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST ON
HURRICANE FRANCES.

[RichG]

northward by the middle of next week that would be good thing for miami right?

[jlauderdal]

northward by the middle of next week that would be good thing for miami right?

negative...hurricanes move around the edges of ridges..so if the ridge moves north it means the system will be to the south of it. remember hurricanes take the path of least resistance.

[RichG]

jlauderdal

good point. so my guess is that it would depend on the axis of the high as to where it would be directing the storm. so here is south florida we are looking for a weaker than expected bermuda high retreating to the north east. as i understand there is any trouugh on the radar yet that will "save the day".

[jlauderdal]

jlauderdal

good point. so my guess is that it would depend on the axis of the high as to where it would be directing the storm. so here is south florida we are looking for a weaker than expected bermuda high retreating to the north east. as i understand there is any trouugh on the radar yet that will "save the day".

no trough on the radar screen at all. the position of the high will make all the difference of who takes the brunt. no guarantee this far out who gets it but it sure looks like a florida problem at this point. the forecast 5 days out really isnt very tricky.

[ColdFront77]

In general the forecast five days out isn't tricky, but when you have a tropical system the consensus is for uncertainties with it's movement.

[frankthetank]

jlauderdal~from wisconsin?

Ok...How do Gaston and the other "disturbance" effect Frances' track or do they? doesn't frances remind you of Donna's track?

[jlauderdal]

jlauderdal~from wisconsin?

Ok...How do Gaston and the other "disturbance" effect Frances' track or do they? doesn't frances remind you of Donna's track?

went to university of w-madison.

[Anonymous]

In general the forecast five days out isn't tricky, but when you have a tropical system the consensus is for uncertainties with it's movement.

..I used to think so, but this year NOAA & local forecasters have done a absolute lousy job on getting the forecast correct regarding this long term SW flow which isn't typical for summer in Florida. The Bermuda High has failed almost every time to place itself near its normal position thus , somewhat cool or nice in the Midwest/ east coast - no sustained heat waves of hot humid weather. Very little heat above 90 in places like DC but plenty of cool autumn like nights in July & August.
Here in Florida all this past week as its been like every past week since June, calling for a return to typical late afternoon thundershowers coming from the east coast sea breeze. Then the next day the same guys call for the pattern to return to normal in a few days out. It hasn't, its not now. NOAA issues the same 5 day out forecast then has to pull back and say a persistent SW flow continues as troughs move deep into the south. Its rare, but not rare this summer.

The very summary by NOAA in Miami which leads this thread is a broken record every 5 days regarding the SW flow.

Someone is messing up models, human error, I don't know but we have not been heavily influenced by the Bermuda High setting up shop in the normal position for a typical Florida summer pattern, so why should it start at the end of August?

Ask Charley he will tell ya why he had to change to a NE direction, he wanted to go NW or west but that darn SW flow!!

Take Care,
Mike

[ColdFront77]

The National Weather Service in Melbourne, Florida weather synopsis have been mentioning the normal high pressure position near and over Florida producing afternoon and evening thunderstorms quite a bit the last three months.