Robert
FXUS62 KMLB 280658
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
258 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 2004
.DISCUSSION...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES 1.9 INCHES OR MORE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GFS/MAV POP
VALUES OF LIKELY LOOK TOO HIGH CONSIDERING WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW.
THE ETA/MET RAIN CHANCE VALUES LOOK MORE IN LINE WITH THE ABOVE
THINKING. WESTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP SEA BREEZES FROM DEVELOPING NORTH
OF THE CAPE AND ANY SEA BREEZES THAT DO FORM FROM THE CAPE SOUTH
WILL HAVE LIMITED INLAND PENETRATION. WENT WITH LATE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE STORMS ALONG THE COAST CAPE SOUTH AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON
STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND NORTH COAST DUE TO DAY TIME HEATING.
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...SHOULD SEE MORE STORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE GULF STREAM AS THE WESTERLY FLOW BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AS IT
RIDES OVER THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATER.
SUN AND MON...WEATHER IN EC FL WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY
TD #7. 00Z RUN OF THE GFS IS CLOSER TO THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK THAN
IS THE ETA...AND HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS. LATEST NHC
FORECAST STRENGTHENS TD #7 INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE MOVING IT
ONSHORE AND NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EASTERN CAROLINAS SUN THROUGH MON
AS IT IS DRAWN NE BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE NE. WHAT THIS
MOVEMENT WILL MEAN FOR EC FL IS AN INCREASING WESTERLY WIND
COMPONENT AND SOME SLIGHTLY LOWER PWAT AIR. THE WESTERLY COMPONENT
WILL ACT TO HAMPER EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...SO HAVE
ADJUSTED TEMPS UP A LITTLE OVER EAST COAST COUNTIES AS A RESULT. IF
AREA COMES UNDER ENOUGH INFLUENCE OF DRYING/SUBSIDENCE...MAY BE ABLE
TO TWEAK POPS DOWN EVEN A LITTLE MORE FROM CURRENT VALUES NEAR
CLIMO...BUT WILL WAIT FOR LATER CONTINUITY WRT TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE
TD BEFORE ADJUSTING POPS DOWN TOO FAR.
TUE THROUGH FRI...INFLUENCE OF TD #7 WILL BEGIN TO WANE BY TUESDAY
WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PENINSULA IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW AND SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
OCCURRING ALONG MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPS WILL NOT GET
QUITE SO WARM NEAR THE EAST COAST WITH WEAKER FLOW EARLY SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.
NOTE TO USERS...PERSONS IN EC FL SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HURRICANE FRANCES CLOSELY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST TRACK STRENGTHENS THIS ALREADY MAJOR (CATEGORY 3 ON SAFFIR
SIMPSON SCALE) HURRICANE EVEN FURTHER AS IT APPROACHES THE BAHAMAS
LATE WEDNESDAY.
&&
.MARINE...W-SW FLOW AROUND TD #7 WILL PICK UP A LITTLE INTO MONDAY...
ESPECIALLY NORTHERN LEG. WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD
MORE OFFSHORE THAN NEAR THE COAST...BUT NOT ANTICIPATING WINDS/SEAS
TO REACH HIGHLIGHT THRESHOLDS. BOATERS WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB 89 74 91 74 / 50 30 40 20
MCO 91 74 90 75 / 40 30 40 20
MLB 88 73 91 75 / 30 20 40 20
VRB 87 73 90 74 / 30 20 40 20
&&
.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...WIMMER
LONG TERM...GLITTO
