Joe B is quite a character.......

[kittcat]

Well, I read his discussion this morning and he sure has some wild ideas. I think he must be high on endorphins this morning. He's going with TD 7 and Frances hitting the same spot in the Carolinas.

Then he ended it with this..

Sung to the tune of Sir Mix A Lot "Baby Got Back"

" I like wild weather and I can not lie/No matter how much you may deny/ When a trof digs in/ or the hurricane seasons a race/with those cyclones that you face/ You go wild/ like a child/ at Christmas with his smile/ dont want to cause no rift/but a challenge is a gift/ even the plains get my drift/ Patterns got....ah.. um....potential/ patterns got potential"

[chris_fit]

LOL

[wx247]

Well, I read his discussion this morning and he sure has some wild ideas. I think he must be high on endorphins this morning. He's going with TD 7 and Frances hitting the same spot in the Carolinas.

Then he ended it with this..

Sung to the tune of Sir Mix A Lot "Baby Got Back"

" I like wild weather and I can not lie/No matter how much you may deny/ When a trof digs in/ or the hurricane seasons a race/with those cyclones that you face/ You go wild/ like a child/ at Christmas with his smile/ dont want to cause no rift/but a challenge is a gift/ even the plains get my drift/ Patterns got....ah.. um....potential/ patterns got potential"

Wait a minute... isn't this the same guy that last year posted that since Texas had already had a hurricane that there was NO WAY they would get another tropical system that year.

[Air Force Met]

Well, I read his discussion this morning and he sure has some wild ideas. I think he must be high on endorphins this morning. He's going with TD 7 and Frances hitting the same spot in the Carolinas.

Then he ended it with this..

Sung to the tune of Sir Mix A Lot "Baby Got Back"

" I like wild weather and I can not lie/No matter how much you may deny/ When a trof digs in/ or the hurricane seasons a race/with those cyclones that you face/ You go wild/ like a child/ at Christmas with his smile/ dont want to cause no rift/but a challenge is a gift/ even the plains get my drift/ Patterns got....ah.. um....potential/ patterns got potential"

Wait a minute... isn't this the same guy that last year posted that since Texas had already had a hurricane that there was NO WAY they would get another tropical system that year.

I don't think JB would say that. He's too versed on climo to make that mistake.

And of course...can you really call Grace anything? Wasn't a hurricane. BUt he was the guy last year that nailed where Claudette would go.

[kittcat]

I might be doing wrong here because Joe's discussion is protected by subscription but here is the paragraph, Air Force Met.

"The development of tropical storms 7 and perhaps even 8 lead to a unique challenge. The pat way out is to slam Myrtle beach tomorrow night with what could be a minimal hurricane and take it north north east, and then have 8 come to near 72 and 32 and turn north, both of them leaving the scene Tuesday night and Wednesday on their way northeast. This allows the ridge to do as it is forecasted to do, rebuild and in comes Frances Labor Day weekend. "

[wx247]

I went back to the thread from last year to check... and he said that history shows that if you have an early season landfalling tropical system in Texas then you most likely will not see anything else that season.

But, it did happen in:
2003
1998 and other years previous... so, I am trying to figure out the odds here.

[Guest]

Of course JB wants a Carolina hit,thats 1 of his highest strike probabilities this year.

[Guest]

Yea considering its 8 days out, a track on the carolinas is so far fetched..lol.

[Air Force Met]

Now see...that statement you just made and quoted him as saying is A LOT different than saying if you had one already there is NO WAY you can get another one. That is what I was responding to...that you said he said ( ) NO WAY. NOw...as you can see by your quote...he said it is not likely that you will have another one...but he didn't say "NO WAY."

I do remember him saying it is unlikely...and it is. Given the 400 year history of landfalling hurricanes in Texas (since euros were there to record it)...the statement is true and it is unlikely...because it has only happened a handfull of times inthe past...so that makes it unlikely...but unlikely does not mean impossible. And in 2003...I would not really classify Grace as "something else." Max sustained winds were about 15-20 mph with a 25 mph gust in a couple ofplaces as it came inland. She probably should have never been names. JB was referring to double hurricane hits. And that IS unlikley. It happened a couple of times...lastly in 1989. One time in 20 or 30 years means the odds are unlikely.

[wx247]

Now see...that statement you just made and quoted him as saying is A LOT different than saying if you had one already there is NO WAY you can get another one. That is what I was responding to...that you said he said ( ) NO WAY. NOw...as you can see by your quote...he said it is not likely that you will have another one...but he didn't say "NO WAY."

I do remember him saying it is unlikely...and it is. Given the 400 year history of landfalling hurricanes in Texas (since euros were there to record it)...the statement is true and it is unlikely...because it has only happened a handfull of times inthe past...so that makes it unlikely...but unlikely does not mean impossible. And in 2003...I would not really classify Grace as "something else." Max sustained winds were about 15-20 mph with a 25 mph gust in a couple ofplaces as it came inland. She probably should have never been names. JB was referring to double hurricane hits. And that IS unlikley. It happened a couple of times...lastly in 1989. One time in 20 or 30 years means the odds are unlikely.

I do stand corrected.