Mike "Floydbuster" Naso
Saturday August 28, 2004 5pm
DISCLAIMER: USE NHC for OFFICAL INFO
Frances has continued to strengthen and is now a category 4 hurricane wind winds of 135 mph and a 948 MB pressure. I see no reason why she will stop now.
My track is pretty much on track with the NHC forecast, but a little faster than their forecast. South Florida.... please watch this closely. Wobbles to the west and north should be expected with this storm. Tropical Storm/ Hurricane Gaston will have little/no impact on this system in my opinion. Therefore, as the ridge builds back in, I see Hurricane Frances moving west to west-northwest out in five days.
Atmospheric conditions are very favorable and are to get only more favorable down the road. I am now forecasting a category 5 hurricane in five days. Fluctuations are expected, and last nights eyewall replacement cycle was a good example. I expect this eye to stay for atleast 24 hours. And even during a cycle, I do not expect much weakening. Therefore, we will have continued strengthening up until five days. I am conservative with my current intensity forecast.
NOTE: ALL INDICTATIONS CURRENTLY SHOW A CATEGORY 4 / 5 HURRICANE MOVING TOWARDS FLORIDA.
12 HRS-- 18.8N-- 55.1W-- 120 kt
24 HRS-- 19.5N-- 58.0W-- 125 kt
36 HRS-- 20.3N-- 62.0W-- 130 kt
48 HRS-- 21.0N-- 65.0W-- 135 kt
72 HRS-- 21.8N-- 68.0W-- 135 kt
96 HRS-- 22.3N-- 73.0W-- 140 kt
120 HRS- 24.0N-- 76.0W-- 140 kt
