Best advice

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 291039 AAA
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
639 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

.UPDATE...EARLY MORNING SHOWERS OFF THE CENTRAL FL COAST ARE
EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND SOONER THAN THOUGHT. WILL UPDATE PUBLIC
ZONES WITHIN 5 MINUTES TO ADJUST 1ST PERIOD WORDING. REST OF
ZONES AND AFD THE SAME.

RKR

*******************************************************************

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUES)...TS GASTON CAUSING WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
AREA WITH SOME ENHANCED UPPER ENERGY ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA. DRIER
AIR HAS ALSO BEEN PULLED IN OVER THE AREA FROM THE GULF. AS GASTON
MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK OVER
THE AREA FROM THE SE STARTING MONDAY. WINDS BECOME MORE S/SE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES AS THE RIDGE AXIS LIFTS TO ACROSS
CENTRAL FL BY TUESDAY. THE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT IS ALLOWING
FOR DECREASED TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD...DESPITE A RETURN TO
THE MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE REGIME BY TUES. HAVE KEPT POPS
IN THE 30-40% RANGE WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY
OVER THE INTERIOR DUE TO DECREASED CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM (TUES NIGHT-SAT)...THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK-WEEK LOOKS
UNEVENTFUL...AS DEEP LAYER RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLC AND SLOWLY TURNS THE SFC FLOW FROM LIGHT/VARIABLE TUE NIGHT AND
WED TO E OR NE BY THURS...CONTINUING FRI. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
OR JUST BELOW SEASONABLE NORMS AS DEEP MOISTURE A SMIDGE DRIER THAN
NORMAL. PCPN TIMING WILL FAVOR AFTN/EVE WITH TEMPS A TAD ABOVE
AVERAGE.

THEN...ALL BETS ARE OFF. HURRICANE FRANCES' EVENTUAL TRACK WILL
DETERMINE THE WEEKEND WX. THERE IS CERTAINLY POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL
WEATHER HAZARDS SOMEWHERE IN FLORIDA GIVEN THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
THE UPPER PATTERN AND INCREASING MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH
THE BIG PICTURE. THAT SAID...IT IS FAR TOO SOON TO SPECULATE...BUT
RESIDENTS SHOULD BEGIN PAYING ATTENTION NOW.

AS FOR THE WEEKEND GRIDS...THE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO ADD A TAD MORE
PESSIMISM TO THE CLOUD AND RAIN FCST ON DAY 7. CURRENT RAMPED UP
WINDS AND SEAS SAT/SUN LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE NOT CHANGED THEM.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MON EVENING AND THEN REVERT BACK TO THE MORE NORMAL 10
KNOTS OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3 FEET
OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 90 77 90 77 / 40 20 40 20
FMY 91 76 91 76 / 30 20 30 20
GIF 92 75 92 75 / 40 20 40 20
SRQ 89 76 89 75 / 30 20 40 20
BKV 90 72 90 72 / 40 20 40 20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JLC
LONG TERM...BSG

[dixiebreeze]

Certainly agree, Rainband, that ALL Florida residents should be paying close attention to Frances.