Is "Ivan" on tap -- and what the heck is....

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dixiebreeze
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Is "Ivan" on tap -- and what the heck is....

#1 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:16 am

that blob of deepening circulation in the W. GOM?!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EATL/IR4/20.jpg
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#2 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:18 am

Here is the GOM blob:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/GMEX/IR4/20.jpg
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#3 Postby PurdueWx80 » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:23 am

I've been watching the convection in the GOM closely as well. Several models (Eta in particular) have been consistently developing a surface low in the northern Gulf for the week ahead. A piece of the trough currently through the midsection of the country should pinch off and retrograde slowly westward. If this happens that would be a pretty ideal setup for something to form just to its east. With relatively light shear and very warm SSTs (and w/ it being in the RRQ of the jet), it definitely has some potential.

Forgot to mention the front hanging out in there - natural area for convergence.
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#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:26 am

Thanks Purduewx80. Good analysis. The GOM is certainly ripe for development.
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#5 Postby dixiebreeze » Sun Aug 29, 2004 11:28 am

Also wondering if we might have another "Bonnie/Charley" scenario setting up for Florida?
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