So Many Different Forecasts

[Guest]

From Amatuers,semi-pros & pros all very knowledgable taking the storm on so many different tracks.I dont know whether to build a bomb shelter & run for the hills or just sit on the beach & drink a margarita.

[mf_dolphin]

In the next three days I bet the decision is a lot easier It's hard to go wrong if you take the NHC forecast and then watch breaking news here. If there's new information between official advisories you can bet it will be here!

[WeatherEmperor]

They are nice to see and learn from but I still focus exclusively on what the NHC says.

<RICKY>

[Harbormaster]

You will be much more relaxed with the cocktail. Just sober up now and then and check in. You have several days.

Look on the bright side - she doesn't look as healthy now as she did earlier today.

[stormchazer]

We are all just talking. The truth is, I'd say by Tuesday you should have a clearer picture. It will be somewhat better tomorrow as the models should have the NOAA Data inputted and be more accurate with there forecast.

The key is to watch the NHC reports and check in here with the Mets to get any sudden updates. Hey, you can ask questions to and learn a little something.

[SouthernWx]

Once we get within the time frame when NHC posts a hurricane watch for some portion of the U.S. coast (IMO by Wednesday night or early Thursday).....the ONLY forecast you should utilize for the protection of life and property is the one issued by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.

[LaBreeze]

As for tonight, a nice cool margarita sounds really nice.

[wxman57]

Actually, I'm amazed at the strong model consensus for SE Florida to the northern Bahamas. The models are very tightly clustered now.

[Derek Ortt]

I've just alerted some of my friends in miami and advised them to take precautions. I know one thing, despite the many forecasts, I know I cannot blow this as they are using our forecasts (nwhhc) to make their life and death decisions, as I am myself (looks like the training I have will really be put to the test now)

[HeatherAKC]

Derek: Just curious, since you are concerned for a South Florida landfall, It appears to me that most of the models take Frances north of us to Central Florida. What do you see differently. No disrespect at all, I value your opinion. Your thoughts on the weakness of the high that will allow frances that NW movement and take us out of harms way.

[RichG]

Derek Ortt- I have a question for you if tpc is following the guidance as per their 11 discussion why are they putting the storm east south florida and the bahamas on friday?

[btsgmdad]

Personally I favor a cold beer.

[TS Zack]

Yea Derek Watch It. At this point it is to early to say and one thing to note I think the NHC don't want to put this thing over Miami and create panic until the observations from NOAA jet are in the models.

[Derek Ortt]

they're following gfdl and I'm following the NASA model (at a slower speed) I mentioned in the discussion

[RichG]

tszack- I think you answered my question as seems to me model trend is south and west not east and north