Latest NHC Track question

[chris_fit]

Why has the NHC shifted its track RIGHT when all the models have shifted left?

[RichG]

I have the same question

[boca]

me too

[Sean in New Orleans]

They obviously think it's going to turn more to the NW. I have alot of confidence in their tracks--they have really been on the money pretty good this season. Kudos to them...let's hope they are right and Frances curves enough that it just skirts the Carolina's and gives only the shipping lanes headaches. We still have people with no lights from Charley. I would hate to see anyone have to go this scenario again.

[EDR1222]

Looks like the NHC track is mirroring the GFDL.

[SouthernWx]

Hurricane specialist Miles Lawrence is one of the "old guard" forecasters....he's extremely conservative in his forecasting. If a hurricane is sitting at 125 mph, he isn't likely to forecast significant intensification (as we all witnessed when it was crystal-clear that Charley was deepening rapidly before the 11 a.m. advisory was issued on August 13th).

As for his track forecast....Miles is apparently taking the GFDL track as gospel. I prefer the ECMWF when forecasting the track of mature hurricanes, especially when there is agreement with the GFS and UKmet.

You can check my latest forecast on my website. I admit it might be a few miles too far to the left after 96 hours....but have serious doubts landfall will occur any farther north than Jupiter Inlet.

[Floridacaner]

I beg to differ about the NHC being on the money this year. They missed on Charley. I had family that evacuated out of Tampa and went to Orlando. They left 20 mph winds and were evacuated into the eyewall.
Sorry about being edgy! Just have a bad feeling about this one. Not just for Florida, but for the whole East coast.

[Derecho]

Why has the NHC shifted its track RIGHT when all the models have shifted left?

Because the models haven't shifted left. The models have shifted right.

Interestingly, the 11PM NHC track is exactly along the 0Z GUNA track, which is the top model, and the average of the GFS, UKMET, GFDL, and NOGAPS models.

[Wallcloud]

These are still very slight changes in track 5 days out. Track is still to the coast. 5 day spot is only 162 miles from Palm Beach. Well withing the 5 day error average.

And just for conversation, the 5 day mark is less than 7 miles from Floyd's actual track.

[quickychick]

I beg to differ about the NHC being on the money this year. They missed on Charley. I had family that evacuated out of Tampa and went to Orlando. They left 20 mph winds and were evacuated into the eyewall.

No, the media missed on that one. NHC did not, they forecast a cone of possibility, not a straight line. Everyone inside that path cone stood a chance of being subject to a varying amount of the force of the hurricane.

[Josephine96]

I still think Frances will be a visitor to Florida.. looks dead set on it just by the way she's been moving