18OZ GFDL - Hot off the presses

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golter

18OZ GFDL - Hot off the presses

#1 Postby golter » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:02 pm

18OZ GFDL Takes her just south of the FL. GA Border.


http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif
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Pebbles
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#2 Postby Pebbles » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:05 pm

Those models are pretty clustered..which in itself makes me very uncomfortable.....
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#3 Postby BlizzardNole » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:07 pm

I saw a special on TV about what a strong hurricane would do if it made landfall around Savannah...the coastline is very flat there and would result in a horrible storm surge.

What about that other track that just goes right up the east coast of FL? That would be hideous!
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#4 Postby x-y-no » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:07 pm

Hmm ...

A little bit west and faster.
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#5 Postby LAwxrgal » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:08 pm

:cry:

They haven't been hit in a long time have they?
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#6 Postby caneman » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:09 pm

LAwxrgal wrote::cry:

They haven't been hit in a long time have they?



What more significant is that it takes it on shore between Cape canveral and West Palm Beach.
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#7 Postby Aimless » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:19 pm

holy moly :-(

( I guessed between Flagler and Jacksonville... I do not wish to be anywhere near correct.)
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LowMug

#8 Postby LowMug » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:21 pm

x-y-no wrote:Hmm ...

A little bit west and faster.


Definitely trending faster and more west...

The HPC forecast should be out shortly
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#9 Postby dhweather » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:28 pm

It's still too early to say.

The fact is Frances is moving due west and has accelerated in the last few hours.

Now, how long does that trend really continue?
How much does the ridge break down?

When does the northern component resume in the track?

Wait and see.....
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golter

#10 Postby golter » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:32 pm

Its not moving due west, its moving between 280 & 290.
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#11 Postby Aimless » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:36 pm

data base hickups ...sorry for duplicate posts
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#12 Postby Pebbles » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:37 pm

OUCH....please only click submit once...it may take a long time with boards so busy...hitting multiple times just makes for allot of repeated posts. :)
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#13 Postby tallbunch » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:39 pm

If Savannah, GA got hit directly....down goes this island I live on. This place if a flood hazard. Flat!!
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#14 Postby dhweather » Mon Aug 30, 2004 1:49 pm

Well, compounding issues, my freakin PC is acting up, so I don't know when it's the database and when its me! ARRGH!!!!
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#15 Postby quickychick » Mon Aug 30, 2004 2:47 pm

Well, compounding issues, my freakin PC is acting up, so I don't know when it's the database and when its me! ARRGH!!!!


Oh, the times I have to keep my mouth shut. :D
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#16 Postby Derecho » Mon Aug 30, 2004 4:30 pm

That's not the 18Z GFDL on that map. that's the 12Z GFDL.

The times at the top is the time the model came out. Models are named y the time their runs START though.

The 18Z GFDL comes out at 7:30PM Eastern each night.
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#17 Postby soonertwister » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:32 pm

golter wrote:Its not moving due west, its moving between 280 & 290.



Accumulatively over the last 42 hours the track of Frances has been less than 10 degrees north of due west. During that time Frances has moved a mere 1.2 degrees farther north, or less than one-fifth of a degree over each six hour period. At the same speed and bearing of the last 42 hours, Frances would make landfall on the north side of Cuba in about four days.

WNW doesn't begin until bearing exceeds 292.5, so Frances has been moving significantly west than WNW for nearly two days.
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Anonymous

#18 Postby Anonymous » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:46 pm

Looking at those models, it appears to me there is a 50/50 chance Frances could still end up in the eastern GOM, if you project 3 of them. The other 3, take Frances a bit more north in Florida, which would not allow for a re-emergence into the GOM.

Just an observation.
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#19 Postby Ixolib » Mon Aug 30, 2004 5:55 pm

LowMug wrote:
x-y-no wrote:Hmm ...

A little bit west and faster.


Definitely trending faster and more west...

The HPC forecast should be out shortly


Seems every run is a tad more west... Is speed the major determining factor on the call for a northward trend???
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