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NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
0300Z TUE AUG 31 2004

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GUADELOUPE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LEEWARD
ISLANDS...ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...ST MAARTEN...ANGUILLA...NEVIS...ST.
KITTS...ST. EUSTATIUS...SABA...AND ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...
VIEQUES AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS OF ST. THOMAS...ST. JOHN AND
SURROUNDING ISLANDS...AND FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM MANZANILLO BAY EASTWARD TO CABO ENGANO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN...
ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ST. CROIX.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
FOR PORTIONS OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 61.4W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 170SE 170SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 61.4W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 60.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 20.1N 63.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 20.9N 66.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.8N 69.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 71.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.7N 75.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 26.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 28.0N 81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 61.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

FORECASTER STEWART


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WWWW
SPFAT1
HURRICANE FRANCES PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM AST MON AUG 30 2004

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF FRANCES WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.4 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU SEP 2 2004

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

20.9N 66.3W 53 1 X X 54 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 14 14
21.8N 69.1W 1 37 X X 38 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 15 15
23.0N 71.9W X 7 23 1 31 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 11 11
TIST 183N 650W 3 X X X 3 ST THOMAS VI 3 X X X 3
MDSD 185N 697W X 2 1 X 3 SAN JUAN PR 4 X X X 4
MTPP 186N 724W X X 1 1 2 MARATHON FL X X X 4 4
MUGM 200N 751W X X 1 5 6 MIAMI FL X X X 7 7
MUCM 214N 779W X X X 5 5 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 7 7
MUCF 221N 805W X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL X X X 6 6
TJSJ 184N 661W 4 X X X 4 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 5 5
MDPP 198N 707W X 7 5 1 13 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3
MBJT 215N 712W X 15 12 X 27 KEY WEST FL X X X 2 2
MYMM 224N 730W X 1 20 2 23 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 3 3
MYSM 241N 745W X X 14 9 23 FT MYERS FL X X X 3 3
MYEG 235N 758W X X 5 13 18 VENICE FL X X X 2 2

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED
C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED
D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER STEWART