Indian River County DEM Comm Message

[GalvestonDuck]

**ECOMM MESSAGE**



The Indian River County Division of Emergency Management, Auxiliary Communication Services is at Level One Alert as of 12:00 hours Tuesday, August 31, 2004.



Level One Alert: Computer Models Indicate A Possible Threat to the Operation Area. Continue Monitoring.



EVENT INFORMATION:

** RELEASE INFORMATION FROM IRCEOC**

Hurricane Frances continues moving west at 15mph. The system is located 175 miles northeast of Puerto Rico at Latitude 20.0N - 64.0W. Sustained winds have once again increased to 135mph which makes Frances a Category IV hurricane. I have no reason to believe that the system will weaken. No wind shear is occurring and the storm is as perfectly developed as a system can be in this area. A gradual west-northwest turn is expected to occur soon, but no evidence of that motion has started. It is important that everyone stop centering on the little red line as to the forecast track. The error cone and attached wind field map should be everyone's true concern. Hurricane force winds now extend 70 miles from the center and tropical storm force winds extend 175 miles from the center. It is more and more likely, because of the wind field, that Indian River County will experience, at least, tropical storm force winds and rain.

The attached visible and infrared picture show a perfect hurricane. Banding is excellent and no wind shear is in the area. The water vapor shows Hurricane Frances moving west, along the southern edge of the sub tropical ridge. At this time, the ridge does not seem to be expanding any longer. This may allow for a northwest turn earlier than the previous forecast. The NOAA jet aircraft data has been entered into the models and a significant move to the northeast occurred. This is likely due to an upper level low over the Bahamas and the ridge not expanding as far west as anticipated. We will watch this for 24 hours or so to see if this is a trend or a fluke. I must say, if the ridge does not expand, it is likely a trend.

For our area, it is time to talk about timelines and possible impacts. Even if Hurricane Frances stays off our coastline, we will receive tropical storm force winds and possibly minimal hurricane force winds. At this point, we should not focus on the minimal impacts, but the maximum impacts. Meaning, I cannot rule out the center making landfall over Indian River County or near our area. So, we should continue preparing our homes, obtaining necessary supplies, and know where to go if an evacuation occurs. The earliest the east coast of Florida will start any protective actions would be Friday. Protective actions may not be necessary, but I know everyone needs to plan with a timeline of some sort. If evacuations were ordered, they will occur on Friday. If shelters needed to be opened, the earliest would likely be Friday night. The tropical storm force winds would be in our area early Saturday morning and gradually increase throughout the morning and early
All of Florida should be prepared for some type of impact from Hurricane Frances. Have your plan ready, supplies ready, and evacuation locations ready should protective actions be needed later this week. Bottom line, MY TIE IS STILL ON!!

I will provide a short advisory at 9:00am tomorrow, followed by a full advisory around noon.



Nathan McCollum

Indian River County Emergency Management

** END OF RELEASE**

[Josephine96]

Good message.. Good reason to be concerned.. the sudden speeding up a tad may mean it wants to stay on a West track and stay to the south instead of the northward jerk the NHC predicted