Don't Let your Guard Down...Consensus Shift Slightly West

[MWatkins]

The overall consensus between the 4 major models has shifted slightly to th west over the previou run from 6Z. It apprears this has happened as a result of the hurricane stayng on a 275 or 280 course even though the motion of the storm in the CONU models is closer to 290 or even 295 through 24 hours.

The hurricane is now moving at 280...still....and although it is expected to slowly bend to the wnw over time. However...the flatter this turn gets in the short turn...the more dramatic the effect could be on the South/Central FL coast. In fact...I could eaisy envision a scenario where the entire coast gets impacted.

The shift also may be a result of the relatively futher west runs of the GFS and continued insistance of the NOGAPS of a clase call with SFL...balanced by a slightly east UKMET model and furtherest left GFDL.

In any event NO ONE IS OFF THE HOOK YET. Tomorrow is the key day not today.

I must stress...even in the lisht of the current GFS guidance...the most recent 12Z Euro model...just out...indicates a SFL landfall in 4 days. This is now the 10th run in a row that this has happened and annot be ignored.

Please...no one let their guard down. THE 96 HOUR ERROR RATE IS DOUBLE THE DISTANCE BETWEEN WEST PALM AND THE 96 HOUR FORECAST POSITION FROM 11AM.

Data:

CONU - 6Z 0 19.8 62.1
CONU - 6Z 12 20.5 64.9
CONU - 6Z 24 21.4 67.5
CONU - 6Z 36 22.5 69.9
CONU - 6Z 48 23.6 71.9
CONU - 6Z 60 24.7 73.6
CONU - 6Z 72 25.7 75.1
CONU - 6Z 84 26.6 76.5
CONU - 6Z 96 27.6 77.6
CONU - 6Z 108 28.7 78.4
CONU - 6Z 120 30.1 79.3

CONU - 18Z 0 20.3 65.1
CONU - 18Z 12 21.3 68
CONU - 18Z 24 22.4 70.6
CONU - 18Z 36 23.5 72.7
CONU - 18Z 48 24.5 74.5
CONU - 18Z 60 25.5 76.1
CONU - 18Z 72 26.4 77.6
CONU - 18Z 84 27.3 79
CONU - 18Z 96 28.2 80.3
CONU - 18Z 108 29.2 81.6
CONU - 18Z 120 30.4 82.8

MW

[Josephine96]

Thank you MW.. I am in no way letting my guard down.. I still have an icky feeling it'll come my way anyhow

[Aquawind]

Well Said Mike.. Here is maybe the GFS confusion answer..



http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html



WITH MAINLY THE NCEP MODEL MAKING THE BIG TURN AND SENDING THE SYS
INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SEND THE SYS INTO
FL...IT MAKES ONE WONDER IF THE ADDITION OF 46 DROPSONDES TO THE
00Z RUNS OF THE NCEP MODELS MAY BE MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK. OF NOTE HERE...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS BOTH TONIGHT AND
LAST NIGHT MADE A FAIRLY LARGE CHANGE FROM THEIR PREVIOUS 18Z RUNS
AND TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z RUN TOMORROW NITE. ALSO...IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO CAT 3 OR HIER HCNS
TO HIT THE E COAST BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND SAVANNAH IN APPROX THE
PAST 100 YRS. THE MEDR PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
EXTRAPOLATE IT THRU DAY 7.

Thought that was interesting alrighty..especially since they called SC on Sunday..Maybe they are thinking back west as well..

[HeatherAKC]

Just when I thought.......

Man, this is like a rollercoaster ride! It's almost making me crazy!!!! AHHHH!

[Josephine96]

I saw an excerpt about the 1898 hurricane on my news last night

[Innotech]

I still think this will be a South/Central Florida hit. For one thing hte ridge remains strong, secondly, the trough is still aligned well west of the action, in a more elogated East/West fashion than the strong N/S one that punted charley. Because of that, and the retreat of the Bahamas ULL retreating from the advancing ridge, I still bleieve the storm will advance further West before the trough beginds to have its effect, if at all. Right now I have this gut feeling that this storm isnt going to pull a floyd, because the ridge is not seeming strong enough to significantly impact that monster ridge. A tongue of high pressure extends into Florida and South of Frances, putting natural Northward curvature into the equation I still dont see a Carolina hit anymore. Gaston and Hermine are long gone, their wake is filled in by ridging, and the door is practically closed. If this is going to go anywhere close to NHCs track it better start moving due NW right now.

[Nimbus]

Good point about tomorrow being key day not today. Getting the warnings as accurate as possible requires patience since this is likely to be a late verifying storm. With a building ridge even the Euro model may have a difficult to call leftward track shift late in the forecast.

[golter]

It doesnt need a Due NW trek to stick to NHC forcast track. Its current WNW is what is called for for the next 36 hours or so. Due NW would take it directly into Wilmington NC. One could even argue she is north of the NHC track at this point. They had her to be approximately 20.3N & 65.2W, my best estimate puts her at 20.7 & 65.2.

[Josephine96]

If the ridge continues building then the NHC will be incorrect and have to shift there track back to the south..

The track will probably be jumped around the next few days anyway

[DelrayMorris]

But it's amazing to me that so many people have. The way people at work were acting today made me shake my head in wonder. They actually stated that I WANT this monster on my doorstep because I tried to tell them that just because the CENTER of the track is toward Jacksonville, it doesn't mean that we should just forget it's out there. I heard someone later say that I was an idiot.

Oh well, I tried. It appears that many people learned nothing from Charley. And I'm still trying to figure out what it is about hurricanes that makes people so nasty sometimes. I don't want that thing, but yes, I did get most of the supplies I need already. I don't want to fight the crowds. How does this threaten someone else, and why do they feel the need to act like I'm so "paranoid"? How is buying batteries the same thing as wishing I would get a CAT 4 hurricane blowing over my house?

Sorry... /vent.

It's just been a long, hard day. At least I don't have to fight the lines in Publix or Winn Dixie on Thursday or Friday if we end up under a hurricane warning.

[CaptinCrunch]

Frances will not make it's turn within the next 18 hours.

I fear that Sourthern Florida will recieve the brunt of this storm (Cat5 160mph winds) form Miami to the Keys, then back out into the GOM where it will make that full turn N. then NE.

[Canelaw99]

Captin, I'm afraid that I've been feeling that same idea since Frances was born. I hate that thought, and I surely don't want her here, but it just seems she has her sights set on our area.

[baygirl_1]

No offense, CaptinCrunch, but I hope not! I know, it is not looking good for South FL and, further down the road, perhaps us Northern Gulf folks. It's nerve-wracking to just watch and wait. Perhaps we could all converge on the Florida Atlantic Coast armed with big electric fans to blow this thing away! That's the only way to stop it now, I'm afraid.
Be careful, everyone!!

[LaBreeze]

Feeling quite safe here in Louisiana - but my thoughts and prayers are and will be with those who will experience Frances. Stay safe.

[CaptinCrunch]

bump

[Stormcenter]

Feeling quite safe here in Louisiana - but my thoughts and prayers are and will be with those who will experience Frances. Stay safe.

Yeah maybe in SW LA. where you are at but anything from N.O. eastward I would definitely keep a VERY close eye on Frances.

[Lowpressure]

Well Said Mike.. Here is maybe the GFS confusion answer..



http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html



WITH MAINLY THE NCEP MODEL MAKING THE BIG TURN AND SENDING THE SYS
INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SEND THE SYS INTO
FL...IT MAKES ONE WONDER IF THE ADDITION OF 46 DROPSONDES TO THE
00Z RUNS OF THE NCEP MODELS MAY BE MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK. OF NOTE HERE...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS BOTH TONIGHT AND
LAST NIGHT MADE A FAIRLY LARGE CHANGE FROM THEIR PREVIOUS 18Z RUNS
AND TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z RUN TOMORROW NITE. ALSO...IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO CAT 3 OR HIER HCNS
TO HIT THE E COAST BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND SAVANNAH IN APPROX THE
PAST 100 YRS. THE MEDR PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
EXTRAPOLATE IT THRU DAY 7.

Thought that was interesting alrighty..especially since they called SC on Sunday..Maybe they are thinking back west as well..

Not entirely true- DORA 1964 120 MPH hit St Augustine

[CaptinCrunch]

Well Said Mike.. Here is maybe the GFS confusion answer..



http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html



WITH MAINLY THE NCEP MODEL MAKING THE BIG TURN AND SENDING THE SYS
INTO THE CAROLINAS WHILE THE REST OF THE MODELS SEND THE SYS INTO
FL...IT MAKES ONE WONDER IF THE ADDITION OF 46 DROPSONDES TO THE
00Z RUNS OF THE NCEP MODELS MAY BE MAKING A DIFFERENCE IN THE
TRACK. OF NOTE HERE...THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS BOTH TONIGHT AND
LAST NIGHT MADE A FAIRLY LARGE CHANGE FROM THEIR PREVIOUS 18Z RUNS
AND TRENDED TO THE RIGHT WITH THE TRACK. WILL BE CURIOUS TO SEE
IF THE TREND CONTINUES WITH THE 00Z RUN TOMORROW NITE. ALSO...IT
IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THERE HAVE BEEN NO CAT 3 OR HIER HCNS
TO HIT THE E COAST BETWEEN PALM BEACH AND SAVANNAH IN APPROX THE
PAST 100 YRS. THE MEDR PROGS FOLLOW THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AND
EXTRAPOLATE IT THRU DAY 7.

Thought that was interesting alrighty..especially since they called SC on Sunday..Maybe they are thinking back west as well..

Not entirely true- DORA 1964 120 MPH hit St Augustine

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A WOBBLY 285/15. FRANCES REMAINS ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN SOMEWHAT OVER THE NEXT 72 HR. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE
HURRICANE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE GENERAL DIRECTION OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS
SCENARIO...EXCEPT FOR THE GFDL WHICH CONTINUES TO CALL FOR A
UNREALISTIC LOOKING MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THROUGH 72 HR IS SHIFTED A LITTLE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK BASED MAINLY ON THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION AND IS ON THE
LEFT SIDE OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 72 HR...THERE IS
DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE DEVELOPS NORTH OF
FRANCES OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK FOR THAT TIME IS SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...ALTHOUGH NOT AS FAR AS THE UKMET WHICH MARCHES FRANCES
WESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.

right on target