5pm Frances... shift west again
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c5Camille
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 28
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 31, 2004
...Severe Hurricane Frances heading for the Bahamas with 140 mph
winds...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas...
which includes Acklins...crooked...Inaguas...Mayaguana
and Ragged Islands...and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the central Bahamas which
includes Cat...Exumas...long islands...Rum Cay and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Punta Gorda westward to Manzanillo Bay.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico...
Culebra...Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Thomas...St.
John and surrounding islands...and for the British Virgin Islands
has been discontinued.
Frances has been tracked with a reconnaissance aircraft...satellite
images...and radar from Puerto Rico. At 5 PM AST...2100z...the
distinct eye of Hurricane Frances was located near latitude 20.5
north...longitude 65.9 west or about 145 miles... 235 km... north
of San Juan Puerto Rico.
The forward speed of Hurricane Frances has increased and the
hurricane is now moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight with a gradual
decrease in forward speed. On this track...the core of the
hurricane will be passing near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands
...And the southeastern Bahamas during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.
Minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance aircraft was
939 mb...27.73 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are still
possible over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in
association with Frances today.
Large and dangerous waves are possible along the north coast of
Hispaniola.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...20.5 N... 65.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 939 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.
Forecaster Avila
Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on August 31, 2004
...Severe Hurricane Frances heading for the Bahamas with 140 mph
winds...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the southeastern Bahamas...
which includes Acklins...crooked...Inaguas...Mayaguana
and Ragged Islands...and for the Turks and Caicos Islands.
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the central Bahamas which
includes Cat...Exumas...long islands...Rum Cay and San Salvador.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion in the
warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect the north coast of the
Dominican Republic from Punta Gorda westward to Manzanillo Bay.
At 5 PM AST...2100z...the Tropical Storm Warning for Puerto Rico...
Culebra...Vieques and the U.S. Virgin Islands of St. Thomas...St.
John and surrounding islands...and for the British Virgin Islands
has been discontinued.
Frances has been tracked with a reconnaissance aircraft...satellite
images...and radar from Puerto Rico. At 5 PM AST...2100z...the
distinct eye of Hurricane Frances was located near latitude 20.5
north...longitude 65.9 west or about 145 miles... 235 km... north
of San Juan Puerto Rico.
The forward speed of Hurricane Frances has increased and the
hurricane is now moving toward the west near 17 mph...28 km/hr. A
turn to the west-northwest is expected tonight with a gradual
decrease in forward speed. On this track...the core of the
hurricane will be passing near or over the Turks and Caicos Islands
...And the southeastern Bahamas during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph...220 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 175 miles...280 km.
Minimum central pressure estimated by a reconnaissance aircraft was
939 mb...27.73 inches.
Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches...locally higher...are still
possible over portions of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in
association with Frances today.
Large and dangerous waves are possible along the north coast of
Hispaniola.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...20.5 N... 65.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...140 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 939 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM AST followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
AST.
Forecaster Avila
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golter
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Brent
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The landfall point is New Smyrna Beach at 2pm Saturday as of the 5pm track.
Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 28
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2004
a reconnaissance plane just entered the eye of Frances. A drop
measured a minimum pressure of 940 mb...and an extrapolated
pressure of 938 mb with a peak wind of 144 knots at 700 mb. The
stepped frequency microwave radiometer...sfmr...on board of the
NOAA p-3 plane just measured 118 knots surface winds. High
resolution satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern has
improved since this morning...the eye remains large and distinct
and the outflow is excellent in all quadrants. T-numbers have
reached 6.5 on the Dvorak scale. Initial intensity has been
increased to 120 knots...making Frances a solid category four on
the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Since the hurricane is already
this strong...some fluctuations in intensity are expected during
the next 3 to 4 days...and those fluctuations will be controlled in
part by eyewall replacement cycles. We will describe them as they
occur since there is no skill in forecasting such processes.
Nevertherless...Frances is expected to reach the U.S. Coast as a
major hurricane.
Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that the hurricane is
moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 15 knots. As indicated
previously... during the the first 2 to 3 days...the hurricane will
be moving between the west and west-northwest steered by a strong
subtropical ridge. Thereafter...the intensity of the ridge varies
with the different models and the forecast becomes uncertain.
However...all models bring the hurricane toward the southeast coast
of the United States in tracks ranging from southern Florida
northward to the Carolinas....with a gradual decrease in forward
speed. The official forecast is close to the global model consensus
which...in fact...has shifted southward a little bit taking into
consideration the new NOGAPS and GFDN runs. The Florida State
University superensemble has also shifted a little bit southward.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 31/2100z 20.5n 65.9w 120 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 21.1n 68.2w 125 kt
24hr VT 01/1800z 22.5n 71.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 02/0600z 23.7n 73.3w 130 kt
48hr VT 02/1800z 25.0n 75.5w 130 kt
72hr VT 03/1800z 26.6n 78.0w 125 kt
96hr VT 04/1800z 29.0n 81.0w 115 kt
120hr VT 05/1800z 31.1n 82.5w 55 kt...inland
Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 28
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2004
a reconnaissance plane just entered the eye of Frances. A drop
measured a minimum pressure of 940 mb...and an extrapolated
pressure of 938 mb with a peak wind of 144 knots at 700 mb. The
stepped frequency microwave radiometer...sfmr...on board of the
NOAA p-3 plane just measured 118 knots surface winds. High
resolution satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern has
improved since this morning...the eye remains large and distinct
and the outflow is excellent in all quadrants. T-numbers have
reached 6.5 on the Dvorak scale. Initial intensity has been
increased to 120 knots...making Frances a solid category four on
the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Since the hurricane is already
this strong...some fluctuations in intensity are expected during
the next 3 to 4 days...and those fluctuations will be controlled in
part by eyewall replacement cycles. We will describe them as they
occur since there is no skill in forecasting such processes.
Nevertherless...Frances is expected to reach the U.S. Coast as a
major hurricane.
Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that the hurricane is
moving toward the west or 280 degrees at 15 knots. As indicated
previously... during the the first 2 to 3 days...the hurricane will
be moving between the west and west-northwest steered by a strong
subtropical ridge. Thereafter...the intensity of the ridge varies
with the different models and the forecast becomes uncertain.
However...all models bring the hurricane toward the southeast coast
of the United States in tracks ranging from southern Florida
northward to the Carolinas....with a gradual decrease in forward
speed. The official forecast is close to the global model consensus
which...in fact...has shifted southward a little bit taking into
consideration the new NOGAPS and GFDN runs. The Florida State
University superensemble has also shifted a little bit southward.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 31/2100z 20.5n 65.9w 120 kt
12hr VT 01/0600z 21.1n 68.2w 125 kt
24hr VT 01/1800z 22.5n 71.0w 130 kt
36hr VT 02/0600z 23.7n 73.3w 130 kt
48hr VT 02/1800z 25.0n 75.5w 130 kt
72hr VT 03/1800z 26.6n 78.0w 125 kt
96hr VT 04/1800z 29.0n 81.0w 115 kt
120hr VT 05/1800z 31.1n 82.5w 55 kt...inland
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#neversummer
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Josephine96
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Josephine96
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