Frances Not As Strong At Landfall

[Anonymous]

Possible good news for SE Florida...

Models show winds down to 110 at landfall and quickly dimish to 85 and then to 35 as it moves through the State.

[Derek Ortt]

and these models had it before to 75KT at landfall.

[GalvestonDuck]

110 is good?

I'm still praying for either some miraculous weakening or a bizarre land-sparing change in path.

[kevin]

The NHC has Frances making landfall a little stronger than 110 mph. More likely it comes ashore as a 140mph storm me thinks.

[ColinD]

Possible good news for SE Florida...

Models show winds down to 110 at landfall and quickly dimish to 85 and then to 35 as it moves through the State.

11am has 125kts at 72 hours. That is 145 mph.

72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND

Also, "THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO"

[caneman]

Possible good news for SE Florida...

Models show winds down to 110 at landfall and quickly dimish to 85 and then to 35 as it moves through the State.

11am has 125kts at 72 hours. That is 145 mph.

72HR VT 04/1200Z 27.5N 80.0W 125 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 29.0N 82.0W 75 KT...INLAND

Also, "THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO"

What is scary if how often has NHC underforecasted strength as the storms have made landfall this year. Hopefully it isn't already 145mph when going into the Gulf Stream.

[kevin]

Hopefully it isn't already 145mph when going into the Gulf Stream.<<

Yes. And lets also hope that some shear keeps this storm from being in a really great environment.

[Brent]

NHC has it 145 mph when it is coming ashore Saturday Morning. 140, 145, 150, what's the difference?

[caneman]

NHC has it 145 mph when it is coming ashore Saturday Morning. 140, 145, 150, what's the difference?

I'm not talking 5 more miles per hour. Lets just say I hope we're not looking at potential for a truly historical Hurricane. Like some of ones from years gone back. It's been not only a very active year but also one that has proven to produce powerful Canes.

[Brent]

NHC has it 145 mph when it is coming ashore Saturday Morning. 140, 145, 150, what's the difference?

I'm not talking more miles per hour. Lets just say I hope we're not looking at potential for a truly historical Hurricane. Like some of ones from year gone back. It's been not only a very active year but also one that has proven to produce powerful Canes.

Yep. Remember: Charley was 145 mph and we see the damage it caused.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'll up your mph by 5! 155 to 160 at landfall

[btsgmdad]

Don't want to see it but SST and pressure support capability lend to belief that she may intensify just off the coast.

[B-Bear]

Yeah, and she could go through another eye wall recycling phase shortly before landfall and hit as a cat 3. These things are so hard to predict. But, short of going through an eye wall recycling, I too think she will hit as a strong cat 4/cat 5.

[TexasStooge]

My mom told me that their workplace has stopped all Jewelery shipments to Florida, because Frances is coming to that State.