I just got back

[B-Bear]

I just got back after being gone just 3 hours and I cannot believe what I'm seeing. In a 3-hour time frame, the board is flooded with "the hurricane is going north, north, north!!"

Get a grip people. Frances remains on her projected track and continues a WNW track. This was forecast. The more NW track that is supposed to begin within the next 24 hrs. was forecast. The slowing down in the next 24 hours was forecast. And a more westerly track shortly before landfall was forecast.

I have seen NOTHING in any of the forecasts from the NHC that would cause me to believe there will be a significant deviation from this track. There are a couple of models that are tracking her more north--one of those models is the GFDL, which has been on crack from the start. GFS has not performed much better. And the BAM is not in its best range for forecasting. So lighten up, take a deep breath, and relax.

We'll know more tomorrow, but at the present time there is NOTHING that would suggest this storm is going into the Carolinas.

[Harbormaster]

How about the majority of the models showing landfall in GA northward?

They all have erratic projected tracks thought (ALL of them) which would lead me to believe that this storm is going to stall or slow almost to a dead halt at some point east of FLA, and then decide which model it likes...

[yoda]

Well, so you know, the GFDL is pretty good w/in 72 hrs.