FXUS64 KLIX 020737
AFDLIX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
240 AM CDT WED SEP 1 2004
.DISCUSSION...
AVN/GFS MODEL IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT FROM PREVIOUS RUNS BUT APPEARS TO
BE WEAKEN ON INTENSITY OF RIDGE TO THE EAST. CURRENT SOUNDING SHOWS
RELATIVELY LOW PRECIPITABLE WATER FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...1.61 INCHES
WITH A DECENT INVERSION/CAP AT 700 MB. THIS SHOULD HELP TO RETARD
DEVELOPMENT OF ANY MAJOR CONVECTION TODAY. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED
CONVECTION BASED ON WEAK NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW AND PRESENCE OF WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST LA AND SOUTHERN MS. ONLY FLY IN THIS
LOW POP ARRANGEMENT IS THE MOVEMENT OF A 40-60 KT JET AT 250 MB FROM
NORTHERN MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST LA PLACING OUR CWA IN RIGHT REAR
QUADRANT FRIDAY. WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS FOR FRIDAY BUT BELOW THE
ETA MOS GUIDANCE NUMBERS...CLOSER TO AVN. REST OF WEEKEND WILL BE
BASED ON TRACK OF HURRICANE FRANCES. I AGREE WITH A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK THAN THAT INDICATED BY THE AVN/GFS MODEL. THE ETA HAS BEEN
INCONSISTENT OVER THE LAST TWO DAYS. THE UKMET MODEL APPEARS TO BE
PLACING MORE EMPHASIS ON THE STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
AND TRACKING THE SYSTEM INTO THE GLFMEX TOWARDS OUR CWA BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS IS THE MORE WEST THAN THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH TAKES THE
STORM OVER KAQQ BY 12Z TUESDAY. WE HAVE TO WAIT TILL SUNDAY BEFORE
MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE CURRENTLY ACCEPTED TRACK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...
MCB 89 69 88 71 / 20 00 40 10
BTR 91 71 90 72 / 20 10 40 10
MSY 90 75 90 76 / 20 10 40 20
GPT 89 72 88 72 / 20 10 40 20
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.
SE LA AND MS COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
That should be enough to assure all Louisiana people I disagree with that there's a 100% chance of a New Orleans landfall, and enough to get at least the rest of us to consider the possibility that it could get pretty darn far into the Gulf.