Hurricane Warning for Florida, ACT NOW!!!!

[WXBUFFJIM]

At 11 AM EDT, A hurricane warning has been issued for the east coast of Florida from Flagler Beach southward to Florida City, Florida including Miami Beach, West Palm beach, Fort Lauderdale, Melbourne, and Daytona Beach, Florida. This warning includes the Lake Okeechobee area. Prepartions to protect life and property must be rushed to completion immediately. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning have been issued for the middle and upper Florida Keys from 7 mile bridge to Florida City including Florida Bay.

At 11 AM EDT, Hurricane warnings have been discontinued for the Turks and Caicos Islands. However the entire Bahamian Chain remains under a hurricane warning including the Nassau and Freeport area.

A hurricane warning means hurricane conditions are expected to occur within 24 hours or less. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less.

At 11 AM EDT, Hurricane Frances was centered near latitude 23.4 north, longitude 73.9 west or about 55 miles southeast of San Salvador or about 450 miles east southeast of the lower Florida east coast or about 435 miles east southeast of Miami, Florida.

Frances is moving towards the west northwest at near 13 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track, the core of Hurricane Frances will be moving near or over the central Bahamas today into this evening. Frances should pass through the northwest Bahamas sometime on Friday morning. This will likely put Nassau at nearly a direct hit during that time. Beyond that, the forecast is becoming more and more certain that Florida will be prime target for a major devastating hurricane landfall later Friday night or sometime on Saturday. The exact timing of the landfall of this major devastating hurricane will greatly depend on where it strikes the coast. For example, if this hurricane strikes near Daytona Beach, the landfall time will be later in the day on Saturday or Saturday night. If this makes landfall near the upper keys or Miami, it should do so later Friday night or early Saturday. However the most likely scenario is for a track between West Palm Beach up to the Melbourne area sometime on Saturday morning as a devastating hurricane.

Maximum sustained winds are up to 145 mph with higher gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible. However Frances is expected to make landfall late Friday or Saturday as a major Category 4 hurricane along the east coast of Florida. There is an outside possibility that Frances strengthens to category 5 hurricane status just prior to landfall as very low shear levels combined with extremely warm water will favor this possibility.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles from the center while tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. This will mean impacts not only near the eye of the storm, but well away from the eye of the storm. For example this will not only be a east coast Florida threat because even inland areas such as Orlando and the theme parks such as Walt Disney World will likely see hurricane force winds of 80-90 mph or higher by late Saturday or into early Sunday. In addition we must mention given the slow forward motion of this hurricane that extremely heavy rains are likely with 10-20 inches possible over Florida and possibly 2-3 feet of rain up into southern Georgia, southern Alabama, and into northwestern Florida. If this comes to play, we will easily have major to devastating fresh water flooding inland as well. The time to do last minute preps is now. When ordered a manadatory evacuation, do so immediately. The best advice is not to travel up to New England or New York, but instead head to a inland shelter that is sturdy and will keep you and your family safe. If that means head to west central Florida, you're better off than you are in eastern Florida, I'll say that now. The key phrase though is don't wait until the last minute to evacuate if ordered to do so because you'll feel sorry if that happens.

Continue to monitor the progress of dangerous hurricane Frances and will post updates around the clock as this storm gets closer to the Florida coast.

Jim