North quadrants appear to be battered by: high pressure...

[ericinmia]

What do you all think about this...

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

it appears to me, that the storm is begging to be affected very strongly from the ridge just to the north of it! Could this possibly be the beginning of a more westerly track?

Here are the winds:

Lower Level:


Upper Level:


Visible Winds:


-Eric

[ericinmia]

Even check this Sat. loop.... the High is building VERY strong!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html


I hope this isn't the precursor to bad news.
-eric

[ericinmia]

153 views and no-one else derives any solution in contrary... or bothers to post it?

Any Met's out there, what are your thoughts?
-Eric

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I just asked about that same situation in an earlier thread. That surge over southern Florida has me worried that time is limited on how far north she will go, then turn west and pick up speed, and also go further west into the GOM than anticipated. Any help on this situation would be greatly appreciated.

[BensonTCwatcher]

I agree with the pro's track right now, including the NHC. Having said that, and NOT being a pro, I am looking at the WV and the Ridge looks to be "squeezed" by the NE quadrant. How much impact this has on the timing and steering is what I am betting the NHC is working on now..

Any thoughts

[CYCLONE MIKE]

ericinmia, I guess no one knows an answer yet. Give it a little time as this could have caught many people off guard

[BensonTCwatcher]

At the risk of getting flamed, it almost looks like the ridge is giving in. Can a system this large break a strong ridge in two????? Has that ever happened? Geez

[isobar]

The convection's looking a bit ragged on the last frame.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hey there isobar, uhh OT but I am from IN. I went to Castle HS what a coincidence...

[BensonTCwatcher]

I say that in 2 more hours. one of the pro mets will have something substantial to say about the track. In reaction to the ridge, the forward speed slowing, and 500 mb synoptics.... My guess is that either the impact of the ridge will invalidate the models and she will sit and spin and who knows where OR she will track more westward in reaction to the ridge at a faster speed. Also I don't think there is enough data on TC this large and strong to allow the models to nail it since they are so rare and most of the larger storms happened ( cat 5) before we had the technology.

[isobar]

Wow Benson, I'm 1 mi N of Castle! Too funny!

I believe TC's of this magnitude are steered more by UL winds, 200-300 mb level. Correct me if I'm wrong.

Frances will be a learning experience for all. I'm struck by the tremendous outflow on the UL wind chart. Very pronounced on the N and E sides.