Pressure up to 949 mb

[PurdueWx80]

URNT12 KNHC 021630
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/1630Z
B. 23 DEG 37 MIN N
74 DEG 06 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2626 M
D. 55 KT
E. 142 DEG 061 NM
F. 244 DEG 95 KT
G. 156 DEG 017 NM
H. 949 MB
I. 12 C/ 3095 M
J. 18 C/ 3074 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. OPEN SW-W
M. C20
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/1 NM
P. AF861 1806A FRANCES OB 11
MAX FL WIND 129 KT NE QUAD 1425Z.

[ilmc172pilot]

Still think it will get to a cat 5 before landfall?...I do

[Vortex]

She will likely peak in intensity while just off the se florida coast before landfall and I know expect at some point she will reach cat 5 status....The upper air pattern is nearly perfect and prior to landfall she will cross the gulfstream...I expect landfall between Miami and West Palm Beach.

[x-y-no]

Still think it will get to a cat 5 before landfall?...I do

If it's going to do it, it would be over the central Bahamas where all that really warm water is. It's a little bit of a hopeful sign that it's looking a little ragged and the pressure is rising.

[Steve Cosby]

Winds are hanging in there, though...

[dixiebreeze]

Strong 'canes often do seem to peak just before landfall, or, as in the case of Hurricane Lilly, virtually dissolve just before hitting. Lilly was a phenomena in that respect, I think.

[Hurricane Cheese]

Do you guys think another eyewall replacement cycle is the cause for this pressure rise?

[x-y-no]

Do you guys think another eyewall replacement cycle is the cause for this pressure rise?

The vortex message says open eyewall - if it were a normal ERC they would have mentioned the closed outer wall.

Seems like she's lost organization a bit - and without a discrete eye, pressure would rise. I expect she'll get her act together again within a couple of hours.

[skysummit]

More than likely.

[CaluWxBill]

I don't see a real strong area of development, that would suggest cat 5 intensity. however, wind shear in front of the system is significantly weaker than days past. So after a 12 hour period of weakening, some more strengthening is definitely possible. But optimal conditions will be needed to reach cat 5 strength before landfall.

[CaluWxBill]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

[Hurricane Cheese]

Even if it doesn't go to Cat 5 we're looking at a HURRICANE HUGO type storm slamming into the FL East Coast...

Right now she's 10 mph stronger than Hugo was at landfall and the same strength as Charley

[CaluWxBill]

Even if it doesn't go to Cat 5 we're looking at a HURRICANE HUGO type storm slamming into the FL East Coast...

Right now she's 10 mph stronger than Hugo was at landfall and the same strength as Charley

No doubt, this sucker is a strong one for sure. Cat 5 would be catastrophic with this storm, if it maintains 145 at landfall, that would be very serious even without reaching cat 5 intensity.