Tampa AFD

[Rainband]

000
FXUS62 KTBW 021722
AFDTBW

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
122 PM EDT THU SEP 2 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES TO BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SAT)...A FEW LOW CAPPED SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE EAST COAST ATTM...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN AN ISOLATED TSTM LATER THIS AFTN. RIDGE AXIS STILL OVER NRN
FA...AND EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTH AS FRANCES PUSHES IN. EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO SLOWLY INCREASE AS SHE GETS CLOSER...WITH BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE AREA RAINWISE STARTING SAT AFTN. WINDS WILL PICK UP
BEFORE THAT WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SPIRAL
BANDS AHEAD OF THE CENTER ON FRIDAY AFTN.

MODEL GUIDANCE COMING INTO FOCUS WITH THE RIDGE HOLDING STRONG AND
ALLOWING THE STORM TO STAY ON THE WNW TRACK...BUT SLOWING DOWN.
THIS IMPLIES A LOT OF RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...AS THE CIRCULATION
WILL HAVE TWO BODIES OF WATER TO PULL MOISTURE IN. RAINFALL TOTALS
COULD EASILY BE IN THE 5 TO 10 INCH RANGE...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP
TO 20 INCHES. WILL EXPAND THE FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE FA AND
HAVE IT GO FROM LATE FRI THRU SUN.

AS EXPLAINED EARLIER...HURRICANE WIND GUSTS STILL POSSIBLE IN INLAND
COUNTIES SO NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE WIND WATCH.

.LONG TERM (SAT NIGHT - THU)...BASED ON THE LATEST TPC TRACK OF
HURRICANE FRANCES LATE THIS MORNING...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF TROPICAL
STORM OR NEAR HURRICANE CONDITIONS IS SHAPING UP FOR THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE CURRENT OFFICIAL TRACK NOW
SUPPORTING THE WORST CONDITIONS OVER POLK...HIGHLANDS...SUMTER...AND
HARDEE COUNTIES AS FRANCES MOVES SLOWLY WEST NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. AS WAS THE CASE WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY...THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR DAMAGING WINDS OVER INLAND COUNTIES CLOSEST TO THE TRACK
OF FRANCES. IN ADDITION THE FORECASTED SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE STORM
WILL ALSO SUPPORT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH FLOODING PROBLEMS
A GOOD POSSIBILITY. ALL RESIDENTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE FRANCES
AND SHOULD CONSULT THE LATEST ADVISORIES BEING ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.

ON LABOR DAY FRANCES SHOULD BE WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
BUT LINGERING MOISTURE IN ITS WAKE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS OR STORMS...SO WILL KEEP POPS IN THE LIKELY RANGE.
DURING TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION...WITH A RETURN TO MORE
NORMAL DIURNAL TYPE SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS ON THE INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY...AND
POSSIBLY EARLY MONDAY...FROM HURRICANE FRANCES WITH TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM LATE SATURDAY
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD START DETERIORATING ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DISPERSIONS WILL BE VERY HIGH NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
OTHERWISE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 76 91 76 89 / 20 30 40 70
FMY 75 91 75 88 / 20 40 40 70
GIF 74 91 75 87 / 20 40 40 80
SRQ 75 91 75 89 / 20 30 40 70
BKV 72 91 72 89 / 20 30 30 70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FRI EVENING THRU SUN EVENING ALL OF FORECAST AREA.
INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH FOR SUMTER...POLK...HIGHLANDS...AND
HARDEE COUNTIES LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RJS
LONG TERM...JCM

[Pasco]

Not good... looks like its going to be a rough couple of days. This area does not need 5-10 inches of rain. Rural residents in the area need to be careful as the critters will be heading for higher ground.

[wlfpack81]

All this rain will make it easier for downed trees as well. So some place well inland and to the sw of the storm could still see extensive tree damage though max winds may only be 55-75mph.

[Rainband]

Not good... looks like its going to be a rough couple of days. This area does not need 5-10 inches of rain. Rural residents in the area need to be careful as the critters will be heading for higher ground.

Glad I live upstairs

[Brent]

WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 20 INCHES

Oh my heck.

On top of Charley and all the rest of the rain Florida has had.