ERC - Western Turn Imminent?

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PerfectStorm
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ERC - Western Turn Imminent?

#1 Postby PerfectStorm » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:45 pm

What a crazy last few hours. I am concerned about the incredible high pressure building to Frances' N. EXPERTS do you see a turn to the West? The wobble North is only that and ERC wobble. The system seems to be expanding some to the west. Possible indication of future track? Noticed an evac to the FL Keys has been issued.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html
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#2 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:46 pm

Such a move certianly wouldn't shock me.
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#3 Postby goodlife » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:48 pm

What is it that's going to at some point turn this thing more northward and keep it out of the gom?
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#4 Postby dixiebreeze » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:50 pm

Nothing.
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#5 Postby btsgmdad » Thu Sep 02, 2004 12:51 pm

The Keys have to be evacuated since the on-shore flow of water being pulled in could flood them, in addition to most of the bridges close after the winds reach tropical storm force.
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#6 Postby golter » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:20 pm

15 Z coordinates 23.4N 73.9W. 18Z coordinates 24.4N 74.4W. That is 3 hours at NNW. I dont see this as a mere wobble...
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#7 Postby dennis1x1 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:23 pm

this looks more like an eyewall/core collapse than the previous erc's......anyone agree?

the pressure is up rather dramatically the last 6 hours.
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#8 Postby 9:48 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:27 pm

GOLTER

the 2PM coords were 23.8N 74.4w...the vector b/w the last 2 recon fixes was 295
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#9 Postby alicia-w » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:28 pm

dixiebreeze wrote:Nothing.


Ouch, Dixie. You're usually so much more tactful than that. That one HURT! :(
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#10 Postby snowflake » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:29 pm

golter wrote:15 Z coordinates 23.4N 73.9W. 18Z coordinates 24.4N 74.4W. That is 3 hours at NNW. I dont see this as a mere wobble...



Dr.Steve Lyons and some of the local mets here said that it moving to the Northwest, but did not say if it was temporary or if it would continue on that path.
Last edited by snowflake on Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:31 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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golter

#11 Postby golter » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:30 pm

I see that now, sorry my mistake. I must have transposed numbers, but that is still NW.
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#12 Postby CFL » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:30 pm

I have been wondering what it supposed to turn Frances north. There's no front there that I can see. Does anyone know why the NHC has been calling for a northward turn?
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#13 Postby Roxy » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:30 pm

goodlife wrote:What is it that's going to at some point turn this thing more northward and keep it out of the gom?


Sadly GL, it looks like you guys might be in line too. Keep your heads up and get ready!
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#14 Postby clueless newbie » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:31 pm

[quote="dennis1x1"]this looks more like an eyewall/core collapse than the previous erc's......anyone agree?
quote]
That would be wonderful, however very unlikely. Hurricanes just don't suddently die from boredom. Frances is certainly emotionally unstable, but not to the extend of suicide.

I suspect it is the strong influence of the growing ridge, trying to turn it.
My fear is that once she turns more westward and relieves that pressure, she would bomb in those bathtub waters.
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#15 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:34 pm

Watch for a new core to bulb out of the west side of the collapsing one.

Then track her left under the ridge that caused it...


(Towards me by the way)
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#16 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:40 pm

I'm watching the evolution of the 594 mb line on the ETA 500 MB HGT chart. Looks like Frances is still south of the ridge peak so she could roll west like Andrew did in 92. The long nw jog is heartening though, hope it continues.
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dennis1x1

#17 Postby dennis1x1 » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:42 pm

opal went from cat 5 to cat 1 in about 12 hours......under ideal conditions....so it can and does happen....

the louisiana storm 2 years ago went from cat 4 to cat 1 in about 12 hours also....


unhealthy is the current checkup for frances......hopefully a trend.
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#18 Postby Sanibel » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:45 pm

Climatology for left-deviating strong storms under strengthening high pressure is leftward in this area.

Frances could have more ridge-breaking mass than Andrew. So a compromise of a more true WNW could resolve.

Do not discount hard left under undetected strong ridge. Storm's present behavior could be a reaction to a perpendicular impact to ridge border...
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#19 Postby Nimbus » Thu Sep 02, 2004 1:59 pm

I would go cross eyed if I stared at the loops for six hours straight watching for the big track change! Have to give it a break for a few hours and look at things with fresh eyes.
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