12 UTC UKMET=Landfall East florida,Second landfall NGOM!!

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE FRANCES ANALYSED POSITION : 23.2N 73.4W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 02.09.2004 23.2N 73.4W INTENSE

00UTC 03.09.2004 24.3N 75.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 03.09.2004 25.2N 77.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 04.09.2004 26.2N 79.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.09.2004 27.2N 80.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.09.2004 27.9N 81.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.09.2004 28.5N 83.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

00UTC 06.09.2004 28.9N 84.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2004 29.8N 86.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2004 31.1N 87.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 07.09.2004 31.4N 88.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

00UTC 08.09.2004 32.1N 88.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2004 32.6N 88.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

A scary run by UKMET for those who live in the gulf coast.

[southerngale]

Is it supposed to make a sharp left? To my untrained eyes, it looks like it's moving maybe a little north of wnw right now.

[Rainband]

I just looked at the models they all seem to be coming together now http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[mobilebay]

Also the GFDL has shiftes more west and is in good agrement with the NHC track. Also, I believe the track will shif a little further westwerd on later advisories.

[Rainband]

I say east, only because that would be better for me

[chakalakasp]

The thing is, most of the people reading this don't know how to interpret the models -- or, that is, they rely entirely on them. Real forecasters use models as a tool, not as a solution. They don't get their panties all bunched up just because one of the GFS runs shows something, unless pencil and paper meteorology and climatology strongly favor the model's solution.

People, stop getting all worked up every time your pet model shows the storm tracking somewere away from the NHS forecast. Unless you've a real strong background in tropical forecasting, IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING TO YOU BECAUSE YOU CAN'T INTERPRET ITS SIGNIFICANCE.

[mobilebay]

The thing is, most of the people reading this don't know how to interpret the models -- or, that is, they rely entirely on them. Real forecasters use models as a tool, not as a solution. They don't get their panties all bunched up just because one of the GFS runs shows something, unless pencil and paper meteorology and climatology strongly favor the model's solution.

People, stop getting all worked up every time your pet model shows the storm tracking somewere away from the NHS forecast. Unless you've a real strong background in tropical forecasting, IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING TO YOU BECAUSE YOU CAN'T INTERPRET ITS SIGNIFICANCE.

It does mean something when the Models agree. I am one of the few a(also ORTT) that believed this track would occur. I know how to read model guidence. DO NOT tell me what to post on this board. Are you of the Carolina people I disagree with?

[NorthGaWeather]

The thing is, most of the people reading this don't know how to interpret the models -- or, that is, they rely entirely on them. Real forecasters use models as a tool, not as a solution. They don't get their panties all bunched up just because one of the GFS runs shows something, unless pencil and paper meteorology and climatology strongly favor the model's solution.

People, stop getting all worked up every time your pet model shows the storm tracking somewere away from the NHS forecast. Unless you've a real strong background in tropical forecasting, IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING TO YOU BECAUSE YOU CAN'T INTERPRET ITS SIGNIFICANCE.

Somebody didn't eat their Wheaties this morning.

[AlexiBlue]

The thing is, most of the people reading this don't know how to interpret the models -- or, that is, they rely entirely on them. Real forecasters use models as a tool, not as a solution. They don't get their panties all bunched up just because one of the GFS runs shows something, unless pencil and paper meteorology and climatology strongly favor the model's solution.

People, stop getting all worked up every time your pet model shows the storm tracking somewere away from the NHS forecast. Unless you've a real strong background in tropical forecasting, IT DOESN'T MEAN ANYTHING TO YOU BECAUSE YOU CAN'T INTERPRET ITS SIGNIFICANCE.

It does mean something when the Models agree. I am one of the few a(also ORTT) that believed this track would occur. I know how to read model guidence. DO NOT tell me what to post on this board. Are you of the Carolina people I disagree with?

Hmmm, someone didn't read the admin post at the top of the board today?

[Rainband]

Calm down both of you. If you have a problem pm each other or just chill. Please read Marshalls message in this forum. We have enough going and won't tolerate disruptive behavior.

[Banditt]

Gumbo, is that you?

[vbhoutex]

Calm down both of you. If you have a problem pm each other or just chill. Please read Marshalls message in this forum. We have enough going and won't tolerate disruptive behavior.

To be very clear on this BOTH COMMENTS WERE OUT OF LINE AND ARE NOT ACCEPTABLE!!! There are many on this board who know exactly what they are doing with models. Also as rainband stated make sure that you read Marshall's statement at the top of this forum concerning name calling and use of the term wishcast in any form!!!

WE WOULD APPRECIATE EVERYONE'S COOPERATION!!!

[chakalakasp]

I'm not posting to be inflammatory, I'm just stating a fact. Unless you are a meteorologist with some forecasting experience under your belt, these models are of very limited use to you. Look back on the topics for the past couple of days -- every model run turns into a breathless collection of people proclaiming that the NHS is full of it and that the storm is going to take whatever oddball model track they've grown fond of. Then, twelve hours later, all the models are different and it starts all over again.

I'm not saying this because I like to pick nits, I'm saying this because people getting worked up and proclaiming with lots of explanation points that the storm is obviously going into the Gulf of Mexico or that the storm is obviously headed for South Carolina when the real forecasters disagree with you is dangerous. People stopping by here just assume that this group of weather nerds (that's an affectionate term -- I'm certainly a weather nerd!) must all know something, and so some guy sitting in Cocoa Beach is thinking "Bah! The weather nerds say it'll hit Miami. Nothing to worry about!"

Not only that, but it frightens the easily frightened. I'd much prefer people point to models and say "This is interesting, are there any forecasters here who can tell me what this means?" then "The BAM's got it breaking for Charelston! OMFG!!!111one"

I may have come across as mean, but I really just want people to calm down a bit and to be very careful about suggesting that the storm will track wildly different than is currently forecast. (Or, as least if you do, make some mention of why you think this beyond "cuz UKMET told me so")

[CFL]

Does anyone know how far west across Florida and into the Gulf that the ridge extends? I'm assuming that's what's keeping her from going north.

[AlexiBlue]

chakalakasp

You have my vote for post of the day!

[c5Camille]

yes chakalakasp... you are brillint...
keen observation.

[vbhoutex]

YOU ARE NOT STATING A FACT!! You are stating your opinion as if it were fact. If you have bothered to read more than just one thread on this board then you know we do have quite a few very competent Professional and Amatuer mets that are quite versed in what they are doing. IMO you insulted quite a few people by the way you stated your "fact".

Are you a professional met and do you know how to interpret the models? If so I ask that you begin posting your thoughts and opinions as to what Frances will be doing in a positive manner to help others here who may not be so versed to make decisions they need to be making.

[rbaker]

looks like to the eastern gom is the axis, one thing that is there today that wasn't in wv loop, is a ene-wsw dry line presumed to be a axis of high pressure, which could be what they found last night on the jet dropsondes, and why models are converging over fla, even the GFDL whish has to the right from the get go.

[Janie34]

I'm not posting to be inflammatory, I'm just stating a fact. Unless you are a meteorologist with some forecasting experience under your belt, these models are of very limited use to you.

That isn't true. How does one expect to be able to train meteorologists if met students aren't able to read and interpret model information? I assure you, this met student can read models and accurately interpret them. Its critical to my future sucess.

[chakalakasp]

YOU ARE NOT STATING A FACT!! You are stating your opinion as if it were fact. If you have bothered to read more than just one thread on this board then you know we do have quite a few very competent Professional and Amatuer mets that are quite versed in what they are doing. IMO you insulted quite a few people by the way you stated your "fact".

It's not a fact that models are of limited use to someone who has little fundemental understanding of weather forecasting? Are you saying relying on models alone is a responsible way to forecast the track of a tropical strom? Somehow I doubt that, as in another thread you (I believe it was you, unless there is another "professional forecaster" on the board) posted a rather detailed and correct explanation of how models miss a whole lot of stuff on the mesoscale end of things, for example, and that only a skilled forecaster can correctly interpret the mesoscale nuances that ultimately have large effects on a forecast product.

While there may be a good number of skilled meteorologists on this board, I hope to god that those skilled meteorologists are not the people getting all in knots over whatever the heck the latest GFS is spitting out for where the storm should be 120 hours from now. And, I do submit (and frankly would be happy to waste my time going back to demonstrate) that there have been a large number of topics posted in the past few days that -- no pun intended -- fit that model.

I think we both have good intentions in this. You want to make sure that the boardmembers are not taken as a bunch of irresponsible amateurs, and I want people to calm down, take a breath, and stop scareing people by using models alone to infer a new storm track. I don't believe that this board is full of irresponsible amateurs, but I do believe that a few people who don't understand what models are best used for are getting a little too exicited about what the models are saying, and that a lot of people who don't know much at all about meteorology and who just want to avoid, you know, dieing in this monster, are getting very confused and agitated by said posters.