Help me please - look at this water vapor loop

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logybogy

Help me please - look at this water vapor loop

#1 Postby logybogy » Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:16 am

What direction does Frances seem to be moving? This is the first image after the eclipse? Is it going more westerly?

I can't make out the center. The eye wall has completely collapsed. It's just one big blob.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html
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dennis1x1

#2 Postby dennis1x1 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:19 am

id say it jumped wnw during the eclipse....about 285 or so.
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#3 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:20 am

I agree with Dennis.
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#4 Postby NateFLA » Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:26 am

It looks pathetic. If it wants any chance of getting to FL as a cane, it needs a hot bath and it needs to clear the goop out of it's eye.

I don't see it happening. Seems it fizzled out, something not one single model predicted to my knowledge.
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#5 Postby logybogy » Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:29 am

Don't underestimate her. She could still be one for the history books.

the shift may focus away from the winds to inland flooding and rain.

We could get 20 inches if it moves slowly. That's probably where the damage will be and there will be extreme inland flooding.
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#6 Postby dennis1x1 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:35 am

cdo is persistent and impressive.....as long as this is the case i wouldnt write her off either....

as for movement right now....even with my best attempts of imagination i cant make myself see any.....stationary.
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#7 Postby logybogy » Fri Sep 03, 2004 2:40 am

How will this effect the models?

Don't they umm have Frances moving?

Won't this stationary movement give the ridge more time to build and Frances will eventually be pushed further west into South Florida?
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#8 Postby Derecho » Fri Sep 03, 2004 4:07 am

WV only shows the top half of the atmosphere.

There's no reason to look at WV for a tropical system other than to examine upper level conditions AROUND the storm (ULLs, shear, outflow.)

It's definitely NOT what you want to use to track movement of the center of a system.
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#9 Postby Lowpressure » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:06 am

Isabel did this, total collapse but still managed 105-110 at landfall. The difference being relative slow forward motion and much warmer gulf stream and Bahamian waters. My computer background is Isabel just before NC landfall, they look quite similar at this point. Visible looks good but with no eye. Just an observation.
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