06z ETA = Hmmm... (NO landfall in FL according to this run)

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yoda
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06z ETA = Hmmm... (NO landfall in FL according to this run)

#1 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:19 am

Well, the new ETA from the 06z ETA is interesting. It appears it is further east....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_024l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_054l.gif

If we compare these two frames, a N shift, with a bit of a West one included, but more N, is shown.
Last edited by yoda on Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:27 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#2 Postby Tertius » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:22 am

From what I understand, the ETA is not good at modeling tropical systems. I will discount this one.
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#3 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:23 am

At 60 hours... the ETA shows Frances MUCH FARTHER EAST than it was on the 0z run...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_066l.gif
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#4 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:24 am

Tertius wrote:From what I understand, the ETA is not good at modeling tropical systems. I will discount this one.


That is correct. The ETA does not handle TC's very well. BUT, this run COULD be a precursor to what the other runs of the global models may show, so this is why it is being posted here.
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#5 Postby mobilebay » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:25 am

YES. It is alot further north and east through 66s hours. Is it on crack? Who knows. I'll I know is the models are as lost as A blind dog in a Meat house. This is it. I give up if the GFS makes a Noreaster.
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#6 Postby ncbird » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:29 am

Ok amature lost here on this and needs some explaining about the model. Does this mean that Francis is now moving North East?

NCBird
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#7 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:31 am

I really have no idea ncbird. I am lost here myself.
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#8 Postby mobilebay » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:32 am

ncbird wrote:Ok amature lost here on this and needs some explaining about the model. Does this mean that Francis is now moving North East?

NCBird

NO.> It means that this model is predicting a more northerly track.
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#9 Postby cape_escape » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:33 am

mobilebay wrote:
ncbird wrote:Ok amature lost here on this and needs some explaining about the model. Does this mean that Francis is now moving North East?

NCBird

NO.> It means that this model is predicting a more northerly track.


Thank you!!
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#10 Postby mobilebay » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:34 am

By the way... for that track to verify it would have to go almost due north through 66 hours.
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#11 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:37 am

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_078l.gif

Landfall per ETA looks to be GA/SC border... :roll:
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#12 Postby ncbird » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:37 am

Thanks for explaining!!
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#13 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 03, 2004 3:41 am

Yup... 84 hrs. its near Savannah for landfall... right near the SC/GA border...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif
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#14 Postby bree4bryce » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:50 am

Any prof met want to give their view on this post? Not that ya'll that have posted aren't extremely helpful I just think this post deserves more discussion...
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#15 Postby bree4bryce » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:53 am

In other words what does this mean...?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084s.gif
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#16 Postby charleston_hugo_veteran » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:53 am

yoda wrote:Yup... 84 hrs. its near Savannah for landfall... right near the SC/GA border...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif


WONDERFUL.... :roll:
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das8929

#17 Postby das8929 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:55 am

This is one computer model, and a poor one at predicting tropical systems. Folks, dont let your guard down.
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