Anyone understand the new probabilities?

[siobhan222]

29% probability now for West Palm Beach and Fort Pierce. But Cocoa Beach is a bit lower. It seems they may now think it's making landfall a little further south???

[Tertius]

29% probability now for West Palm Beach and Fort Pierce. But Cocoa Beach is a bit lower. It seems they may now think it's making landfall a little further south???

Where are you getting this info from? Could you post a link if possible please?

[siobhan222]

Sure: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... trike.html

[yoda]

29% probability now for West Palm Beach and Fort Pierce. But Cocoa Beach is a bit lower. It seems they may now think it's making landfall a little further south???

Where are you getting this info from? Could you post a link if possible please?

Here ya go Tertius...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at ... trike.html

[NC George]

Here's a much more useful link, as it groups the cites by location rather than name. Atlantic coast runs up S to N one list, GOM the other:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 0832.shtml?

[NC George]

I don't like the way they add the percentages to arrive at a total percentage, I don't think that's mathematically correct, it's only a summation, and not necessarily the actual percentage chance of a hit. (and I've passed math past calculus, so I do know a little of what I speak.)

Better to look at each day's individual percentage, and you see Palm beach has a 23% shot of getting hit Friday, while cocoa has a 20% shot of getting hit Sat, a wash in my book.

[PTPatrick]

Well...the reason is that the persentage is based on it passing within X nautical miles to the given city in the next 5 days. Speaking strictly from a geographical standpoint, she is close to West Palm right now than Cocao, because West Palm juts out into the water, and because it is further south. SO I higher percentage does not necessarily mean they expect landfall at a given city.