Undercutting Ending?

[MWatkins]

Satellite imagery from this morning suggests that the undercutting we were seeing yesterday may be coming to an end...the satellite presentation...paticularlly in IR imagery...looks more symmetrical...and the ripple look we saw yesterday in visible imagery appears to be confined mostly to the nw part of the outflow and is away from the center.

I supposte TPC will confirm this later this morning...if true...Frances has time to recover.

MW

[Deenac813]

Thanks Mike. What does that mean?

[tailgater]

Mwatkins can you tell me what causes that ripple looking effect in water vapor outflow

[Brent]

That means if true, the weakening is over and she could easily re-strengthen.

*Off to stare at the satellite*

[kevin]

Time will tell.... thanks for your insights MW.

[Deenac813]

That means if true, the weakening is over and she could easily re-strengthen.

*Off to stare at the satellite*

Thanks for the reply Brent! I appreciate it as I am trying to learn all I can!

[Brent]

It does look better on the last few frames.

[tallywx]

The best method to determine if/when she actually restrengthens is by looking at radar loops. Right now, you can see a HUGE dry section south of the northern eyewall fragment with no precipitation whatsoever (there may be some low-level light precip. below the radar beam, but no convection). Notice how the feeder bands on her west side completely dry out before they wrap south of the center. This looks very similar to Opal at landfall...a northern eyewall fragment, and NOTHING on the southern side. If Frances begins to make a comeback, you'll see convection wrapping around the entire circulation again. That will be the sign.

[TLHR]

http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html

Click on Animate.

Convection around the center is getting better.
Looks like the SW gap is starting to close and rotate around.

This thing has all day to bask in the hot sun.

[Stormcenter]

I want to see an EYE!!!!!!!!

There NO excuse for 100mph plus storm not
to have a clear eye. But seriously once you see that
again I think that will be tell tale sign she is restrengthening. IMO

[Brent]

I want to see an EYE!!!!!!!!

There NO excuse for 100mph plus storm not
to have a clear eye. But seriously once you see that
again I think that will be tell tale sign she is restrengthening. IMO

LOL

[Dave C]

The west. shear is probably blowing high clouds over the eye. Recon says eye is open to the south.

[adelphi_sky]

48 hours leaves plenty of time to do a Charley. Even 24 hours. 48 hours is a long time to strengthen. She weakened in a day. I don't think the odds are against her regaining her previous strength in 2.

[spaceisland]

Local Met here on the Space Coast says that there appears to be some reformation of an eye with more convective wrapping evident in the last hour. He made it very clear that folks need to be aware that some strengthening is possible, and that the slow motion of a large storm is the greatest threat.

They also showed people coming off the interstate system because they were running out of gas (12 hour drive from Ft. Lauderdale to Orlando!).... folks sleeping in their cars.

Why can't the highway patrol escort a convoy of tanker trucks into Orange, Velusia and Brevard Counties????

[dixiebreeze]

"*Off to stare at the satellite*"

LOL Brent.... I was just thinking about how much time I (we all) spend staring at the satellite!

[Canelaw99]

Spaceisland - include Dade and Broward in there - we've got a gas shortage here too....very few stations actually have fuel right now, and those that do are so low it probably won't last much beyond today....

[spaceisland]

I guess the major Everglades tank farm is "off line" due to the storm. The gas fill-up before the tax went back into effect Sept 1 also depleted stocks statewide.

I am so glad that we are not on the freeway...
... and I especially pray for the parents of small children, when they ask "are we THERE, yet?