Forecast to strengthen to 120 before landfall.
Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 40
Statement as of 21:00Z on September 03, 2004
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from
north of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach. A Hurricane
Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from north of
Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward to the Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas
has been discontinued.
Hurricane center located near 25.9n 77.5w at 03/2100z
position accurate within 20 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 7 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 959 mb
eye diameter 25 nm
Max sustained winds 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt.
64 kt....... 75ne 40se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt.......120ne 100se 70sw 100nw.
34 kt.......160ne 125se 110sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 180se 180sw 350nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 25.9n 77.5w at 03/2100z
at 03/1800z center was located near 25.7n 77.2w
forecast valid 04/0600z 26.5n 78.4w
Max wind 100 kt...gusts 120 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 40se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt...145ne 100se 70sw 100nw.
34 kt...175ne 125se 110sw 140nw.
Forecast valid 04/1800z 27.4n 80.0w
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 40se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt...120ne 100se 70sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 125se 110sw 140nw.
Forecast valid 05/0600z 28.0n 81.5w...inland
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt...160ne 125se 50sw 50nw.
Forecast valid 05/1800z 28.5n 82.5w...inland
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 0ne 0se 50sw 50nw.
Forecast valid 06/1800z 31.1n 85.0w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 07/1800z 35.1n 87.0w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.
Outlook valid 08/1800z 40.0n 85.0w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 25.9n 77.5w
next advisory at 04/0300z
forecaster Avila
5pm Frances-115 mph winds, 959 mb pressure
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 40
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2004
data from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Frances
has changed little in organization during the past few hours and
remains a dangerous hurricane. The initial intensity is kept at 100
knots but...based on recent observations from the stepped-frequency
microwave radiometer...sfmr...instrument on board a NOAA
aircraft...the wind field appears to be expanding a little bit.
This necessitates extension of the Tropical Storm Warning northward
along the Florida East Coast. The hurricane has about 24 hours to
strengthen...if at all...while moving over water. Although none of
the guidance show significant stregthening...there is a small
opportunity for Frances to re-intensify somewhat as it passes over
the Gulf Stream and approaches the Florida coast.
As anticipated...the hurricane is moving right on track with the
usual wobbles. The initial motion is 300 degrees or west-northwest
at about 7 knots and a track between the west-northwest and
northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next 2 to 3 days. Because neither the steering nor the
track guidance have changed..there is no point to discuss it again.
The bottom line is that Frances...a powerful hurricane...is
forecast to move very slowly across Florida. However...the timing
and location of landfall can not be specified exactly.
Because Frances is a slow moving hurricane...it could bring
torrential rains to portions of Florida.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 03/2100z 25.9n 77.5w 100 kt
12hr VT 04/0600z 26.5n 78.4w 100 kt
24hr VT 04/1800z 27.4n 80.0w 105 kt
36hr VT 05/0600z 28.0n 81.5w 70 kt...inland
48hr VT 05/1800z 28.5n 82.5w 35 kt...inland
72hr VT 06/1800z 31.1n 85.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 07/1800z 35.1n 87.0w 20 kt...inland
120hr VT 08/1800z 40.0n 85.0w 20 kt...inland
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2004
data from a reconnaissance plane and satellite indicate that Frances
has changed little in organization during the past few hours and
remains a dangerous hurricane. The initial intensity is kept at 100
knots but...based on recent observations from the stepped-frequency
microwave radiometer...sfmr...instrument on board a NOAA
aircraft...the wind field appears to be expanding a little bit.
This necessitates extension of the Tropical Storm Warning northward
along the Florida East Coast. The hurricane has about 24 hours to
strengthen...if at all...while moving over water. Although none of
the guidance show significant stregthening...there is a small
opportunity for Frances to re-intensify somewhat as it passes over
the Gulf Stream and approaches the Florida coast.
As anticipated...the hurricane is moving right on track with the
usual wobbles. The initial motion is 300 degrees or west-northwest
at about 7 knots and a track between the west-northwest and
northwest with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
during the next 2 to 3 days. Because neither the steering nor the
track guidance have changed..there is no point to discuss it again.
The bottom line is that Frances...a powerful hurricane...is
forecast to move very slowly across Florida. However...the timing
and location of landfall can not be specified exactly.
Because Frances is a slow moving hurricane...it could bring
torrential rains to portions of Florida.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 03/2100z 25.9n 77.5w 100 kt
12hr VT 04/0600z 26.5n 78.4w 100 kt
24hr VT 04/1800z 27.4n 80.0w 105 kt
36hr VT 05/0600z 28.0n 81.5w 70 kt...inland
48hr VT 05/1800z 28.5n 82.5w 35 kt...inland
72hr VT 06/1800z 31.1n 85.0w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 07/1800z 35.1n 87.0w 20 kt...inland
120hr VT 08/1800z 40.0n 85.0w 20 kt...inland
0 likes
#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 40
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2004
...Outer squalls of dangerous Hurricane Frances moving over the
Florida East Coast...weather should begin to deteriorate
gradually...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from
north of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach. A Hurricane
Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are now in effect from north of
Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward to the Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas
has been discontinued.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 25.9 north...longitude 77.5 west or about 90 miles...
145 km...east-southeast of Freeport Grand Bahama Island and 200
miles east-southeast of the Florida lower East Coast.
Frances has been wobbeling but in general is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A west-northwest to
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of
Hurricane Frances will continue to move near or over the
northwestern Bahamas today and will be near the Florida coast on
Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are forecast during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.
Minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter plane was
959 mb...28.32 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet abover normal tide
levels...along with dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the north side of Grand Bahama Island.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be
expected on the west side of the other islands of the Bahamas.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 6 feet above normal lake water
level is expected in Lake Okeechobee.
Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances.
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...25.9 N... 77.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115
mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Avila
Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2004
...Outer squalls of dangerous Hurricane Frances moving over the
Florida East Coast...weather should begin to deteriorate
gradually...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from
north of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach. A Hurricane
Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning are now in effect from north of
Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the middle and upper
Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward to the Seven Mile
Bridge...including Florida Bay.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the Hurricane Warning for the central Bahamas
has been discontinued.
At 5 PM EDT...2100z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 25.9 north...longitude 77.5 west or about 90 miles...
145 km...east-southeast of Freeport Grand Bahama Island and 200
miles east-southeast of the Florida lower East Coast.
Frances has been wobbeling but in general is moving toward the
west-northwest near 8 mph...13 km/hr. A west-northwest to
northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is
expected during the next 24 hours. On this track...the core of
Hurricane Frances will continue to move near or over the
northwestern Bahamas today and will be near the Florida coast on
Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are forecast during the next
24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.
Minimum central pressure reported by a hurricane hunter plane was
959 mb...28.32 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet abover normal tide
levels...along with dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the north side of Grand Bahama Island.
Storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be
expected on the west side of the other islands of the Bahamas.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 6 feet above normal lake water
level is expected in Lake Okeechobee.
Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances.
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.
Repeating the 5 PM EDT position...25.9 N... 77.5 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115
mph. Minimum central pressure... 959 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 8 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 11 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Avila
0 likes
#neversummer
-
hurricane_lover
-
Hurricane Cheese
- Category 1
- Posts: 365
- Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:40 am
- Location: Green Bay, WI (UWGB Earth Science Alum)
After cooling my jets after endless hours of analyzing Frances, I must say I was wrong earlier when I wrote her off.
She certainly still has a chance, and should be taken seriously until she's gone. Stay safe down there!
She certainly still has a chance, and should be taken seriously until she's gone. Stay safe down there!
0 likes
"If we are afraid to be different...how can we make a difference in the world?"
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
- Rev. John I. Jenkins C.S.C, President, University of Notre Dame
Re: 5pm Frances-115 mph winds, 959 mb pressure
another wobble, but we're (kissimmee/orlando) still in the bullseye.
Also note the slight increase in windspeed.
"ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
1500Z FRI SEP 03 2004
<snip>
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.
<snip>
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
FORECASTER AVILA"
Also note the slight increase in windspeed.
Brent wrote:Forecast to strengthen to 120 before landfall.
Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 40
Statement as of 21:00Z on September 03, 2004
<snip>
Forecast valid 05/0600z 28.0n 81.5w...inland
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 30sw 30nw.
34 kt...160ne 125se 50sw 50nw.
<snip>
next advisory at 04/0300z
forecaster Avila
"ZCZC MIATCMAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062004
1500Z FRI SEP 03 2004
<snip>
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.5N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.
<snip>
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
FORECASTER AVILA"
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 167 guests