11 PM EDT, Update and analysis on Frances

[WXBUFFJIM]

While Hurricane Frances has weakened to a strong upper end category 2 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale, by no means are we out of the woods in Florida. A hurricane warning remains in effect for the northwest Bahamas as well as the east coast of Florida from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, Florida including Lake Okeechobee. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning remain in effect from Flagler Beach northward to Fernadina Beach, Florida.

A brand new set of watches and warnings have been issued at 11 PM EDT for the west coast of Florida from Suwannee River southward to Florida City. A tropical storm watch has been issued from Suwannee River southward to north of Bonita Beach including the Tampa Bay area. A tropical storm warning is in effect from Bonita Beach southward to Florida City and from Florida City southward to 7 mile bridge on the Florida Keys including the Florida Bay area.

A hurricane warning means hurricane conditons are expected within 24 hours or less. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours.

At 11 PM EDT, Hurricane Frances was centered near latitude 26.1 north, longitude 77.8 west or about 150 miles east southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. Frances was moving toward the west northwest at near 6 mph and this general motion and track is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On this pace, Frances is expected to make landfall near West Palm Beach, Florida by late Saturday evening. Doing the math, 150 miles away from Palm Beach divided by a forward movement of 6 mph would mean about 24 hours until landfall on the West Palm Beach vicinity. This is assuming it moves at 6 mph for the rest of the way.

Maximum sustained winds are now down to 105 mph with higher gusts, making Frances a category 2 hurricane on the saffir simpson hurricane scale. Fluctuations in intensity are likely with Frances during the next 24 hours. While Frances has weakened to a category 2 hurricane, by no means are we done with the coastal erosion, and especially the heavy rain issue. We must also remember with slow moving systems like this, it could easily come right back again if it stays out there long enough over that very warm water.

The situation we're facing tonight includes a combinations of factors that don't favor much strengthening for the next several hours. Southwest winds are approaching the hurricane, hence chopping off the west and southern outflow. The outflow to the north and east of the hurricane is excellent. So this is more of a lopsided system at this time with the majority of the very heavy rain and wind being over the center of the hurricane points north and east. We also have had some drier air intruding into the west side of the circulation causing the west and south side to chop off and croak for the time being. So at least for tonight we can breathe easy in Florida.

However, as Frances approaches Florida, I don't care if it's a tropical storm or a category 4 hurricane, the slow forward motion will be recipe for a potentially life threatening and devastating inland freshwater flooding event Saturday morning all the way through Labor Day Monday for the sunshine state. With a tropical system moving at 10 mph, rainfall totals of 10-15 inches are likely, which we could experience from Tampa down to Sarasota. However as this system makes landfall near the West Palm Beach late Saturday evening, the forward motion could potentially be 5 mph or less resulting in rainfall totals of 20-35 inches with local amounts over 40 inches. As a result, I MUST STRESS that we potentially could see a very devastating and deadly rainfall flooding event. Anyone in Florida whether you're at your home or at a shelter are strongly encouraged to move to higher ground away from flood proned areas. Most people DIE from INLAND freshwater flooding in tropical cyclones these days. That is why the impacts from this system could be very significant whether this is a storm or a hurricane. Allison was not even a tropical depression when it stalled and flooded Houston. Strength and intensity of tropical systems is not the point, it's the forward speed that is the key in determining how much rain falls and based on what I'm seeing, Florida, south Georgia, and southeast Alabama could get absolutely smacked by devastating flooding rains. Stay alert for this folks!!

Jim

[caneseddy]

Down where in the news, they're now mentioning the new track shows the center brushing just north of Lake Okeechobe

If this is a slow moving storm and crosses just north of Lake Okeechobee or over the lake in itself, it will be a test for the levees and floodgates if they can handle the possibility of water sloshing from the lake

Also, if Frances follows the track it is forecast to be on, it will pass close by the Kissimmee River, which already is overflooded because of Charley so there is that fear that this can aggravate the flooding around Polk and Osceola counties

Either way you look at it, like you pointed above WXBUFFJIM this has the potential to be one of the biggest flood events in the country, which may be compared to Agnes back in 1972

[simplykristi]

People in FL still need to have their guard up! THis will be a major rain producer and will produce a lot of flooding. Please everyone in FL stay sfae!!!

Kristi