Ivan Looking Healthy

#1 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:05 am

Unfortunately...Ivan is looking very impressive in satellite imagey this evening. Not many times this season have I seen sustained yellow pulses in the NRL IR fields.

Man...this season keeps coming and coming. Not many years that by September 4...the Atlantic is actually leading the E Pacific by a named storm score of 9 to 8. So far...every TD in the Atlantic has gotten a name.

Wow.

MW

mobilebay · #2 Postby **mobilebay** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:10 am

Mike I understand that this is not the correct thread for this question but, do you think that frances will take a more westerly turn toward my neck of the woods. The latest models sure thinks so..

Matthew5 · #3 Postby **Matthew5** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:18 am

Go Ivan go Ivan go go go!!!! Nice looking storm Ivan!

#4 Postby **btangy** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:20 am

Maybe it's the name, but I feel the NHC and SHIPS are much too conservative in their intensity forecast for Ivan.

Ivan will travel through very warm waters at 10N. Low shear or no shear for at least 48 hours. Tonight's CDO development will probably push Ivan to hurricane intensity by midday tomorrow, and a period of explosive development may push the intensity 20-30knots above the NHC's intensity estimate at 48 and 72 hours. Could have a very powerful hurricane approaching the Windward Islands. Just a possibility, but I think conditions are ripe for this to happen with Ivan.

SouthernWx · #5 Postby **SouthernWx** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:42 am

btangy wrote:Maybe it's the name, but I feel the NHC and SHIPS are much too conservative in their intensity forecast for Ivan.

Ivan will travel through very warm waters at 10N. Low shear or no shear for at least 48 hours. Tonight's CDO development will probably push Ivan to hurricane intensity by midday tomorrow, and a period of explosive development may push the intensity 20-30knots above the NHC's intensity estimate at 48 and 72 hours. Could have a very powerful hurricane approaching the Windward Islands. Just a possibility, but I think conditions are ripe for this to happen with Ivan.

I agree....while we're all pre-occupied with Frances (and with good reason), the potential of Ivan, at least for the Caribbean is just as frightening tonight. I saw GFDL progs earlier today of Ivan reaching 135 kts and 920 mb as it approaches and enters the eastern Caribbean. Just looking at the area Ivan is coming from and the way it's intensifying brings two terrifying names to mind... hurricanes David (1979) and Allen (1980) :eek:

(as a sidenote....on satellite images, t.s. Ivan reminds me a lot of hurricane David did as it developed...the similarities are scary).

siobhan222 · #6 Postby **siobhan222** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:52 am

What's CDO? I see you guys mention it a lot. Sorry for my stupidity.

Siobhan in PBG

#7 Postby **MWatkins** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:54 am

siobhan222 wrote:What's CDO? I see you guys mention it a lot. Sorry for my stupidity.

Siobhan in PBG

CDO stands for Central Dense Overcast...in other word the big blob of convection you see over tropical storms and hurricanes.

MW

#8 Postby **btangy** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:54 am

Central Dense Overcast. When you see a big ball of convection with very cold clouds tops just blossom over the center of circulation. Indicative of strengthening, especially in tropical storms.

#9 Postby **BayouVenteux** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:21 am

Matthew5 wrote:Go Ivan go Ivan go go go!!!! Nice looking storm Ivan!

Easy for you to say from your easy chair in Oregon. :roll:

Pardon my disdain at your excitement Matthew, but this storm is looking very un-"fishy" and potentially troublesome down the road for points west.

bahamaswx · #10 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:27 am

I'm sure many of us share his enthusiasm. A season full of fish, weak TS's and TD's would bore the hell out of me.

Ivan Looking Healthy

Ivan Looking Healthy

Who is online