New Advisory 5AM

[Cookiely]

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 42


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 04, 2004



...Frances continues to batter the northwestern Bahamas...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect from
north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Florida West Coast to Englewood. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect on the southern Florida
Peninsula from Englewood to south of Florida City...and for the
middle and Upper Keys from south of Florida City to the Seven Mile
Bridge...and for Florida Bay.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the Florida West Coast
from north of Englewood to the Suwannee River.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 26.6 north...longitude 78.1 west or about 45 miles...
70 km...east of Freeport Grand Bahama Island. This position is
also about 125 miles east of West Palm Beach Florida.

Frances is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph ...9 km/hr. A turn
to the west-northwest is expected later today. On the forecast
track...the large core of Hurricane Frances will continue to move
slowly over the northwestern Bahamas this morning...and will be
very near the Florida East Coast by late tonight or early Sunday
morning.

Frances is a strong category two hurricane. Maximum sustained winds
are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher gusts. Frances is
expected to remain a borderline category two/three hurricane until
landfall.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

The latest minimum central pressure measured by an Air Force Reserve
unit reconnaissance aircraft was 960 mb...28.35 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 5 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the center of Frances on the north side of Grand Bahama
Island. Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide
levels can be expected on the west side of the other islands of the
Bahamas.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above normal levels is
expected in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida
coast...storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels is expected south of the path of Frances.

Storm total rainfall amounts could reach 20 inches in the northwest
Bahamas. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...with locally higher
amounts...are expected over the Florida Peninsula in association
with Frances.

Swells generated by Frances are affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.
Repeating the 5 am EDT position...26.6 N... 78.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 960 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Franklin


$$