WIND GUST TO 87 mph in Jupiter Inlet. Frances continues to batter the northwest Bahamas and eastern Florida at this time.
Hurricane Frances continues at a steady state of intensity this morning after a 48 hour period of weakening. Frances continues to feel some intrusion of drier air on it's southwestern side and also some shear on the southwest side. The combination of those two are chipping and croaking the outflow on the southwest semicircle. Areas around the center points north and east have the most intense convection this morning and also the trmendous outflow. Hence this is more of a lopsided storm system for the time being. However despite all the obstacles it's encountering, water temps of 86 to 90 degrees are likely balancing that out causing a steady state. Any slight decrease in southwest shear as well as decreases in dry air will only result in further strengthening. The bottom line is don't let your guard down. Even if this is a category 2 or a category 3 hurricane, this is still a very dangerous hurricane. But we also make it worse with the very slow forward motion, which will prolong the event. As a result of that slow forward motion, rainfall totals over Florida, southern Georgia and southeast Alabama as advertized over the past few days could be absolutely devastating to flood proned areas.
A hurricane warning remains in effect this morning for the northwest Bahamas as well as the east coast of Florida from Flagler Beach southward to the Florida City area. A hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning remains in effect from Flagler Beach northward up to Fernadina Beach, Florida. A tropical storm watch remains in effect from Suwannee River southward to Englewood, Florida including Tampa Bay area. A tropical storm warning remains in effect from Englewood southward to Florida City and from Florida City including Florida Bay southward to 7 mile bridge on the keys.
A hurricane warnings means hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less. This means you must take last minute actions and take the neccessary precautions to protect life and property. A hurricane watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 36 hours. A tropical storm watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within 36 hours. A tropical storm warning means tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours or less.
In addition to the warnings and watches for hurricane conditons, the combination of high pressure over the northeast and Mid Atlantic and the hurricane over Freeport in the northwest bahamas is enhancing the pressure gradient with an easterly fetch up and down the east coast, hence very dangerous rip currents. Beaches in the New York City are are actually shut today due to this very deadly rip current issue. This will be a dangerous and deadly issue up and down the eastern seaboard this holiday weekend. I wouldn't risk it by going into the water.
The center of Hurricane Frances at 8 am edt was located near Freeport or about latitude 26.7 north, longitude 78.4 west. This is also about 110 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Frances is moving towards the west northwest at near 6 mph. There has been occasional wobbles towards the northwest and also towards the west. However wobbles can be expected in hurricanes. The point is the overall mean direction is towards the west northwest at 6 mph, which would mean a landfall later tonight between West Palm Beach and Melbourne with Vero Beach and Fort Pierce in between. The slow forward motion of 6 mph is still very concerning for Florida, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as a forward motion of 5 mph or less could result in rainfall totals of 20-35 inches while a forward motion of 10 mph would result in 10-15 inches of rain. The bottom line is more people die from inland freshwater flooding in tropical cyclones these days. Hence anyone that is in a flood proned area whether in shelters or near their home are encouraged to move to higher ground. Later in the forecast period, the remnants of Hurricane Frances is expected to track towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valley as high pressure is expected to remain in control over the Mid Atlantic region while a cold front and upper trough remain in place over the center of the country. As a result, a track towards the Ohio and Tennessee Valley is expected during the Monday-Wednesday time frame.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Frances could potentially intensify slowly prior to landfall tonight. Hence we coulod see a borderlined category 2-3 hurricane at landfall. Frances is a very large hurricane with hurricane force winds extending outward up to 105 miles from the center while the tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 185 miles. Wind gusts of 45 mph were reported last hour near West Palm Beach while wind gusts were near 40 mph near Melbourne. However some of the heavier squalls are expected to produce wind gusts to 60-70 mph even well away from the center of the hurricane. There was a very recent unofficial report of a wind gust to 87 mph in Jupiter Inlet, Florida. Thus the impacts will be felt on a much greater scale with Frances than Charley. Worsening this scenario is the fact this system is moving very slowly. Hence major to severe beach erosion, coastal flooding, and extremely heavy flooding rains will be widespread along the east Florida coast. A flood watch is also in effect for all of the Florida Peninsula today.
We will keep an eye on this system all weekend long. We also have a 60 mph tropical storm Ivan well east of the Lesser Antillies. It could become a major hurricane near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands in 5 days. This tropical system will also continued to be monitored very closely. Hurricane watches maybe neccessary for the Lesser Antillies and Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands during the next day or so.
Jim
8 am update on Frances, analysis on Frances and Ivan!!!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
8 am update on Frances, analysis on Frances and Ivan!!!
Last edited by WXBUFFJIM on Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:23 am, edited 4 times in total.
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simplykristi
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great post thanks for the info
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My posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just ramblings of an old Grandma who loves tropical storms, and are not backed by any type of sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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simplykristi
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