Don't forget about Ivan ...

[Stormsfury]

The GFDL brings Ivan down as low as 922.4hpa, and a solid CAT 4 by the end of the timeframe (100m winds as high as 135 kts) ... and the path resembles the NHC (basically the GFDL is heavily weighted on the 5 day forecast track ...) ...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2004090406-ivan09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Another potential threat for the Southeast Coast lies with the progression of Ivan ... however, IF Ivan crosses over the Dominican Republic, the circ. center would likely be disrupted very heavily with those 10,000+ mountains on that island nation.

A lot of uncertainties, with the various GFS and CMC ensembles members widely spread at the 500mb level ... some suggest a southern route, others a recurvature, and some somewhere in between (FL) ...

SF

[ROCK]

The GFDL brings Ivan down as low as 922.4hpa, and a solid CAT 4 by the end of the timeframe (100m winds as high as 135 kts) ... and the path resembles the NHC (basically the GFDL is heavily weighted on the 5 day forecast track ...) ...

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2004090406-ivan09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Another potential threat for the Southeast Coast lies with the progression of Ivan ... however, IF Ivan crosses over the Dominican Republic, the circ. center would likely be disrupted very heavily with those 10,000+ mountains on that island nation.

A lot of uncertainties, with the various GFS and CMC ensembles members widely spread at the 500mb level ... some suggest a southern route, others a recurvature, and some somewhere in between (FL) ...

SF

I dont think this will be a FL or east coast event. Hes very low in latitude. Still believe a GOM hit...

[NJCane]

As in most cases with these things as they approach the US, it is all about the trough. Looks like a pretty good sized one, but the timing and strength will dictate if it does in fact get as far as the USA

[Stormsfury]

Believe it or not, Frances' leftovers may leave behind a trough which may act an initial bump to the north ... the ENS means indicate a pretty sprawling high, but troughiness in the Upper Plains/Great Lakes in about 7-10 days ... with an erosion of the SFC high offshore of the EC ... situation just a bit different than with Frances ...

And yes, it COULD stay far enough south for none of the mid-latitude features to be of any appreciable factor ...

SF

[cycloneye]

I hope that the GFDL intensity forecast doesn't verify in my neck of the woods.It is too far south to get those mid-latitud systems but when it gets closer to the islands it may move more westnorthwest or northwest then getting very close to Puerto Rico or Hispanola.

[Patrick99]

For some reason, when I look at Ivan, the tracks of these two bad boys come to mind:

1900 Key West/Galveston

1919 Key West/Texas[/img]

[Stormsfury]

00z model runs primarily indicate that Ivan may head for the DR ... and is reflected in the intensity DSHIPS as on the 120 hour timeframe, down to 56 kts ...

One of the issues not resolved is just how much of a trough is left behind in the wake of Frances next week ... the ENS spread is just as all over the place ...

Code: Select all

000
WHXX01 KWBC 050109
CHGHUR

 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
 PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

  NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

  TROPICAL STORM IVAN       (AL092004) ON 20040905  0000 UTC

          ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS...   ...36 HRS...
          040905  0000   040905  1200   040906  0000   040906  1200

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD     9.3N  41.4W    9.7N  44.0W   10.3N  46.7W   10.9N  49.5W
  BAMM     9.3N  41.4W   10.0N  44.2W   10.8N  47.0W   11.7N  50.0W
  A98E     9.3N  41.4W    9.6N  44.6W   10.0N  47.7W   10.4N  50.6W
  LBAR     9.3N  41.4W    9.6N  44.5W    9.9N  48.0W   10.1N  51.8W
  SHIP        60KTS          67KTS          74KTS          79KTS
  DSHP        60KTS          67KTS          74KTS          79KTS

          ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS...   ..120 HRS...
          040907  0000   040908  0000   040909  0000   040910  0000

           LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
  BAMD    11.4N  52.2W   12.6N  57.4W   14.3N  62.1W   16.7N  66.2W
  BAMM    12.5N  52.8W   14.1N  58.4W   15.9N  63.1W   18.4N  66.6W
  A98E    10.8N  53.3W   12.0N  57.8W   13.4N  62.0W   15.6N  66.2W
  LBAR    10.2N  55.6W   10.4N  62.7W   12.4N  68.2W     .0N    .0W
  SHIP        85KTS          91KTS          96KTS         100KTS
  DSHP        85KTS          91KTS          96KTS          59KTS

               ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
  LATCUR =   9.3N LONCUR =  41.4W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  16KT
  LATM12 =   8.9N LONM12 =  38.2W DIRM12 = 272DEG SPDM12 =  17KT
  LATM24 =   9.1N LONM24 =  35.0W
  WNDCUR =   60KT RMAXWD =   15NM WNDM12 =   50KT
  CENPRS =  991MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD =  200NM SDEPTH =   D
  RD34NE =   90NM RD34SE =  100NM RD34SW =   60NM RD34NW =  90NM