Ivan's track

[Windfall]

If it passes the Dominican Republic and goes through the "Herbert box", could this be a miami/south florida strike?

[gatorbabe79]

The FNMOC/NOGAPS model doesn't look good for Miami/Keys area, but it's early.

[LaBreeze]

Local met reported last night that Ivan would probably not get farther than "here" - and pointed to the area of the Keys. I'm not sure what he meant by that. Is there supposed to be a front to pick Ivan and sweep him north or northeast at that point? The met spoke as if Ivan would not be entering the GOM. Thoughts anyone?

[Patrick99]

My gut feeling is that Ivan will be a FL Straits runner into the Gulf, and be a problem for the Keys and Cuba, then Texas or Louisiana.

[air360]

Patrick, apparently your gut and my gut are different...because my gut feels that somethign will come along and sweep this to the north with possibly a brush along the SE US coast somewhere...but not a real inland hurricane like Frances will be or a GOM cane...but...at this far out...everyones gut is pretty different most likely

[canegrl04]

I'm with Patrick99 on Ivan

[Patrick99]

Patrick, apparently your gut and my gut are different...cuz my gut feels that somethign will come along and sweep this to the north with possiblhy a brush along the SE US coast somewhere...but not a real inland hurricane like Frances will be or a GOM cane...but...at this far out...everyones gut is pretty different most likely

Could be.....maybe Hugo-like? I was looking at tracks today, same dates, same location as Ivan, and 3 stood out in my mind - 1900 Galveston, 1919 Key West, and Hugo.

[Guest]

If he starts going North after 65w or 70 w it most likely will either fish or hit the SE coast. An expert told me that

[air360]

yea possibly .... and well...a hugo clone is NOT a good thing...becuase everyone knows what Hugo did.............
but like i said...at this far out...your gut is as good as mine:)

[Harbormaster]

This thing could end up in Ireland for all we know... any speculation at this point is pure speculation!!!!!!!!!!!

Stop "pin-pointing">>>>>>>>>>>............

[wlfpack81]

Storm is too far out to really make good predictions. However, based on what's been saying about the ridge steering Ivan, and the fact Ivan is so low late wise I don't think this thing is going out to sea. It's at least going get someone in the Carribean.

[B-Bear]

First he has to figure out how to get around Hispaniola. If he can manage that, then he is a definite threat to someone. But if he hits Hispaniola, he might not even recover.