Serious Situation Developing - Eyewall Rapidly Contracting

[logybogy]

http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kmlb.shtml

[jacindc]

I'd offer this as another piece of evidence about the eye pulling together:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... e&pid=none

[LCfromFL]

I'd offer this as another piece of evidence about the eye pulling together:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... e&pid=none

Thanks for posting the link jacindc - that's the best view I've seen yet of her contracting eye.

[FlSteel]

Definitly looks like it is getting much better oraganized. This is not a good sign for those people inland. Up here in Jax, we have had a steady breeze all day. No rain yet but it is coming. My prayers and thoughts go out to all the people in south florida.

[ColinD]

Max Mayfield was just on tv. Said there was no evidence from the high altitude flights that an eyewall was actually forming.

[Anonymous]

Convection has pretty much wrapped around.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

[rockyman]

[Anonymous]

It is still way to unorganized for rapid deepening, but it looks the best it has since it weakened.

[rockyman]

If those few dry areas fill in, this would look like a VERY strong hurricane...it does not look disorganized at all to me.

[Anonymous]

Didnt say it was unorganized, just not organized enough to rapidly deepen

[Nimbus]

Pressures are dropping as we post. At 1 MB an hour she could spin up quite a bit before landfall.

[logybogy]

Remember she still may be over water for another 18-24 hours.

So don't count her out. Strong Cat 3 (125-130 mph) is quite possible.

[dennis1x1]

pressures are dropping as we speak? link?


latest i have is 962....definitely not a drop....but maybe my recon link is old.

i also fail to see a "rapidly contracting eye"...it appears the same size through that whole loop.

all in all that radar signature looks very weak for a cat 2 storm.....doesnt look like there is any signs of an eyewall developing.....just a very broad area of low pressure....

[jacindc]

I'd offer this as another piece of evidence about the eye pulling together:

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... e&pid=none

Looking at this loop now, there's some amazing storms popping up between Titusville, Daytona, and over through Orlando, with that band heading toward Sarasota then Tampa....

[btangy]

Outflow is getting better toward the west, so shear is relaxing, but the "eye" is still somewhat disorganized. What appeared to be an eyewall forming earlier hasn't continued to develop around the center of circulation. No to say Frances won't intensify any. I still expect some modest intensification, but as for Frances bombing out over the Gulf Stream, I don't think it'll have enough time.

[PurdueWx80]

I just looked at a 3 hour loop of the storm and the eye has definitely contracted quite a bit over that time period.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/radar

Choose a 3 or 4 hour loop, regional reflectivity and click on Melbourne.

[alicia-w]

that last recon vortex data is old. dont know when new data is expected. anyone?

[dennis1x1]

i assume nimbus has the new data.......

[chris_fit]

anytime now... i'll post at as soon as i get it.

i expect a lower pressure, by 3-4 mb

[Nimbus]

I just posted a buoy report for a location to the east of the eye. The pressure was down by 1 MB over an hour period. By extrapolation I would say the central pressure is now in the 950's.